Match Preview: Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina — six matches, zero wins, one last chance to change the story

Canada have played six World Cup matches in their history. Won none of them. Zero points across 1986 and 2022, twelve goals conceded, a group stage exit each time. Today, in front of 30,000 people at BMO Field in Toronto, Jesse Marsch's side get to start writing a different story. 1

Standing in the way: Bosnia and Herzegovina, a side ranked 65th in the world that had no business being at this tournament — until they beat Italy on penalties in March and earned their ticket to the party. 2

Kickoff: 3pm ET / 12pm PT | Venue: BMO Field, Toronto | TV: FOX (Eng), Telemundo (Spa) Referee: Facundo Tello (Argentina)

The last time Canada played a World Cup, they lost all three games in Qatar and flew home early. Marsch has built a more experienced, more cohesive squad since then — but the pressure is markedly different this time. This is their tournament. Canada's fans will pack BMO Field, the Voyageurs are loud and expectant, and the country wants to see its football team do what it has never done: win a World Cup match.

The squad has two significant absences. Moïse Bombito, their best central defender and the Nice centre-back who was expected to anchor the back four, is out with a broken leg. Attacking midfielder Marcelo Flores ruptured his ACL after being named in the squad. That's a painful double blow — it falls right at the back and in the creative midfield, exactly where Bosnia will probe. 2

There's also the Alphonso Davies question. Canada's captain, the Bayern Munich winger who scored their first-ever World Cup goal in 2022, has been working back from injury. Marsch hasn't ruled him out, but he's been cautious, and Davies himself has been pessimistic about his chances of starting. If he doesn't play, Canada lose their best attacker and their most recognizable name. 1

So much of this Canadian attack runs through Jonathan David regardless. The Juventus striker has 39 international goals — more than any Canadian in history — and the finishing instincts that would make him a threat in any group. Alongside him, Tajon Buchanan and Liam Millar provide width on the flanks, while vice-captain Stephen Eustaquio (1g/4a for LAFC on loan from Porto this season) orchestrates in midfield. Marsch's system is high-energy, front-foot, aggressive: press from the front, win the ball high, transition fast. That works against teams that can be rattled — but it can leave gaps if the press is bypassed. 3

Bosnia weren't supposed to be here. They needed two playoff wins just to qualify: a shootout victory over Wales in the semi-final, then another penalty drama against Italy in the final, where New England Revolution homegrown Esmir Bajraktarević stepped up and converted the decisive spot-kick to send the Azzurri home. 3

Coach Sergej Barbarez has built a side that knows exactly what it is. They're compact, disciplined, and designed to absorb pressure — then spring forward on the counter through wide men Bajraktarević and whoever lines up opposite him. When they win possession in their own half, the ball moves quickly to the flanks, and eventually into the box, where Edin Džeko waits.

Džeko is 40 years old. He is one of only a handful of players at this World Cup over that age, and he remains Bosnia's most dangerous and most intelligent attacker. His record of 73 international goals demands respect regardless of how many recovery sessions that knee has needed. He won't run past anyone at pace, but he doesn't need to: he reads channels, holds the ball, lays it off, and finds pockets. Bosnia's shape is designed to get him the ball in space. 2

Striker Ermedin Demirović scored 12 Bundesliga goals for VfB Stuttgart this season and is likely to start alongside Džeko or just behind him. Their pre-tournament friendlies — 0-0 against North Macedonia, 1-1 against Panama — weren't electric, but nobody is sweating friendly results when your last competitive game was beating Italy.

If Canada pressure Bosnia high and the Bosnian fullbacks keep their shape, this game probably opens up. If Bosnia absorbs the Canadian press and finds space on the counter, they can hurt a back line missing its best defender.

The specific duel to watch is Jonathan David vs. Bosnia's central defenders. Tarik Muharemović is young and clever, and Nikola Katić adds physicality, but neither has faced a striker of David's movement before at this level. One run in behind, one sharp finish, and the tone of the night changes.

Does Marsch go wide from the start? If Davies can't play, Buchanan shifts wider and Canada lose a dimension on the left. Bosnia know this — their scouting of qualifying will have noted how often Canada's attack flows through that flank. Plugging it won't be subtle.

On the other side, if Bajraktarević gets space — and he tends to get space when teams press high — Bosnia have genuine danger on the right. His composure in big moments (see: that Italy penalty) makes him worth watching from minute one. 2

This isn't a game Canada should lose. But the pressure, the absences, the expectations of a home crowd — those things are real, and Bosnia have already shown they can beat a better team than this.