Iran deal RESOLVED YES, Warsh flips rate-hike odds above 50%

Polymarket daily recap — June 17 09:34 ET → June 18 14:00 ET (28.5 hours) · All probabilities from Polymarket Gamma API as of ~10:05 AM ET June 18 unless noted. BTC price from CoinGecko as of ~14:00 ET June 18.

Two of the biggest open questions on Polymarket closed in the same 28.5-hour window. The entire US-Iran permanent peace deal event — $478.9M in total volume, 17 deadline markets, four rounds of UMA dispute — resolved YES at around 12:32 AM UTC on June 18, ending a saga that has run since February's strikes. 1 Hours later, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's debut FOMC press conference delivered a dot plot so hawkish that a July rate hike crossed from tail risk into coin-flip. 2 BTC absorbed both: down −2.2% to $63,796, $406M liquidated, and the Fear & Greed Index at 15 — an unprecedented 18th consecutive Extreme Fear day. 3

Today's top markets at a glance

Market	Probability	24h change	24h vol
Iran peace deal — all deadlines ≥ Jun 15	RESOLVED YES	—	$64.2M
Iran airspace closed by Jun 30	99.95%	+77.45pp	$869K
Iran uranium enrichment ends by Jun 30	63.5%	+9.0pp	$909K
US-Iran diplomatic meeting by Jun 19	54.85%	−29.2pp	$687K
Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by Jun 30	12.5%	−6.0pp	$1.37M
Iranian regime falls by Jun 30	0.35%	−0.2pp	$3.18M
Fed rate hike in 2026?	52.5%	+22pp	$222K
Fed July no-change	73.5%	−19pp	$694K
Fed July 25bp hike	22.95%	+20pp	$473K
Zero cuts in 2026	79.65%	+11.05pp	$722K
BTC > $64K today (Jun 18, expires EOD)	43.5%	—	$229K
Ethiopian PM: Belete Molla	0.15%	—	$4.06M

Sources: Polymarket Gamma API 4 5

Iran peace deal: $478.9M resolves YES after 4-round UMA battle

Trump signed the 14-point memorandum of understanding from Versailles, France, on the sidelines of the G7 summit on June 17. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed remotely from Tehran. The White House confirmed the MOU is "in effect." 6 The text — about 1.5 pages, not the hundreds of pages of the 2015 JCPOA — was publicly released by CBS News on June 17 after US officials dictated the 14 points to reporters. The core terms: a 60-day ceasefire on all fronts, Hormuz reopens toll-free for 60 days, the US lifts its naval blockade, Iran can export oil immediately, and both sides enter a 60-day nuclear negotiation window. 6

The resolution ended four rounds of UMA dispute. The mechanism: market proposers kept advancing YES; challengers disputed, arguing the MOU's temporary language — a 60-day framework, not a permanent cessation — failed to meet the contract's requirement for an agreement that "explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease." After the fourth cycle, UMA resolvers sided with YES. All six remaining deadline markets (Jun 15 through Dec 31) resolved simultaneously at approximately 00:32–00:38 UTC on June 18. 1

The flagship June 15 contract alone carried $177.4M in lifetime volume ($56.9M in the final 24 hours). Across all 17 deadline markets, total event volume reached $478.9M. 1 The sibling "US and Iran sign an agreement" event (event 585172) also resolved YES across all four deadlines — Jun 15 ($20.2M), Jun 22 ($471K), Jun 30 ($486K), Jul 31 ($215K). 7

Trump's framing was direct: "Ships of the world, start your engines." 6 The formal Bürgenstock signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday June 19 in canton Nidwalden, Switzerland. Swiss FDFA spokesperson Pierre-Alain Eltschinger confirmed: "At this stage, the signing is scheduled for Friday, June 19, at Bürgenstock in the canton of Nidwalden." 8 The ceremony was proposed jointly by Pakistan, Qatar, the US, and Iran, with Switzerland acting as facilitator. No attendee list has been released.

The most active resolution-cascade market is the regime-fall contract: 0.35% Yes on $3.18M in 24-hour volume, near-zero after the peace deal removes the destabilization thesis. 9 The airspace closure contract surged +77.45pp to 99.95%, reflecting the deal's confirmed airspace reopening commitment. 9 The uranium enrichment concession market ticked up +9.0pp to 63.5% as traders price in the 60-day nuclear negotiation framework. 9

The June 19 diplomatic meeting ambiguity

One market dropped sharply because the deal resolved. The "US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19" contract fell −29.2pp to 54.85% on $687K in 24-hour volume. 10 The contract's resolution criteria count "indirect meetings through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors" — so the Bürgenstock ceremony on June 19 probably qualifies. But traders are split: the remote signing on June 17 has already occurred; if resolvers treat that as the operative meeting, a June 19 ceremony is confirmatory rather than qualifying, potentially resolving the contract either way. The June 21 deadline at 67.75% and the June 30 deadline at 85.4% offer wider windows. 9

Hormuz: deal is done, ships are still waiting

Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz "permanently toll free." The market put the probability of traffic returning to normal by end of June at 12.5% Yes, down 6pp from 16.5%. 11 The resolution threshold: the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of transit calls reaching at least 60 per day (the pre-war baseline was ~140/day). Current rate: ~25 ships/day via the US-opened southern route off Oman. The expected near-term range is 40–50 ships/day; a US official put full normalization "definitely within 30 days." 11

Fishing residents and cargo vessels at anchor off Bandar Abbas, Strait of Hormuz, June 8, 2026 — Residents fish from shore as cargo vessels lie at anchor off Bandar Abbas in the Strait of Hormuz, June 8, 2026. An estimated 600–1,500 commercial ships remain stranded inside the Persian Gulf pending mine clearance. Credit: ISNA/AFP via Getty Images. 11

The bottleneck is physical, not diplomatic. An estimated 600–1,500 commercial ships remain stranded inside the Persian Gulf, including roughly 250 tankers (ICS estimate). The US has been demining and opened a southern transit corridor; the UK and France have now joined with autonomous mine-hunting sea drones, Typhoon jets, and HMS Dragon. Captain Tim Hawkins, CENTCOM spokesman, confirmed: "It's been a U.S. effort." 11

Five empty Qatari LNG tankers turned back toward Gulf ports on June 17 — the first ships heading inward since the conflict began — signaling that operators are starting to trust the corridor. ICS spokesman Tom Bartošák-Harlow was clear-eyed: "There's still a lot of risks associated with transit. It's very likely to be a gradual process of confidence amongst shipping companies." 11

An additional friction point: Iran's Foreign Ministry says vessels will owe "service fees" — for navigation facilities, environmental protection, and maritime support — rather than tolls. Trump insists the strait is permanently toll-free. James R. Holmes (U.S. Naval War College maritime strategy chair) told NPR there is no basis in international law for any coastal state to charge for passage through a natural waterway, "whether you call it a toll or a fee." 11 This terminology dispute is unresolved going into Friday's formal ceremony. The 12.5% end-of-June probability reflects market skepticism that mine clearance AND fee-regime clarity can both land before July 1. Scott Savitz of RAND noted a 30-day timeline is "realistic based on the fact that the US has taken out a high number of Iran's minelaying vessels." 11

FOMC: Warsh delivers the hawkish debut, hike crosses 50%

The June FOMC hold was never in doubt — it resolved YES on Polymarket at $164.6M total volume, with the no-change contract settling to [1, 0] immediately. 12 The Fed voted 12-0 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive hold. 2 The statement: "Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability." 2

What nobody had fully priced was the dot plot. The June 2026 SEP dot plot median for end-year funds rate moved to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March — implying one 25bp hike from the current level. 13 Thirteen of 18 FOMC participants project the year-end rate at 3.625% or higher. 13 PCE inflation was revised to 3.6% (from 2.7% in March); core PCE to 3.3% (from 2.7%). GDP growth was revised down to 2.2% from 2.4%. On inflation risks, 17 of 18 participants see the risks to PCE and core PCE weighted to the upside — the most lopsided reading in SEP history. 13

Jeffrey Gundlach (DoubleLine Capital CEO) told CNBC the market had misread Warsh: "the new Fed Chair will aim for price stability instead of being the 'easy money Chairman' people thought." 3

The Polymarket repricing was immediate and symmetric.

"Fed rate hike in 2026?" — the cleanest binary — surged +22pp to 52.5%, crossing the 50% threshold for the first time. 4 At $2.32M total volume and a 0.01 bid-ask spread, this is not a thin-market artifact. The pre-FOMC price was ~30%; post-FOMC it's a coin-flip. 4

Fed July no-change collapsed −19pp to 73.5%, while Fed July 25bp hike surged +20pp to 22.95%. 4 The mirror shift — virtually every percentage point that left no-change landed in hike — indicates traders are converting the dot plot signal directly into July hike probability rather than routing it through broader uncertainty.

Zero cuts in 2026 climbed +11.05pp to 79.65%, while 1-cut fell from 20.5% to 14.5%. 5 The apparent paradox — a hawkish dot plot that implies hikes somehow raises zero-cuts odds — resolves cleanly: if the Fed is signaling a potential hike, a cut becomes even less likely. Traders abandoned the "one modest cut" scenario as quickly as they abandoned the "easy Warsh" assumption. Zero-cuts at 79.65% is now the dominant path by a 5x margin over the next most likely scenario (1-cut at 14.5%). 5

BTC: $406M liquidated, ETF Day 22 flips negative, F&G hits 18th record

The BTC crash chart tells the story cleanly.

BTC/USD 5-minute chart, June 17, 2026 — FOMC crash from $66,400 to $64,338 — BTC/USD 5-minute candles on June 17, 2026. Price ran to $66,400 pre-FOMC before collapsing to $64,338 after Warsh's press conference. Current price: $63,796 (−2.2% on the day). 3

BTC sits at $63,796 (−$1,444 from $65,240 at yesterday's data cutoff). 14 The broader damage: ETH −3.0% to $1,732, SOL −3.9% to $70.94, XRP −4.34% to $1.16, BNB below $600. 3

Total market liquidations over 24 hours: $406.29M across ~98,000 traders. BTC accounted for $133.49M; ETH for $107.29M. In the final hour before snapshot, $82M in liquidations hit — $79M of it long positions. The largest single liquidation: a Binance BTCUSDT position worth $4.96M. 3

CoinGlass liquidation heatmap, 24-hour window ending June 17, 2026 — CoinGlass 24-hour liquidation heatmap: $406.29M total, BTC $133.49M, ETH $107.29M, 98,003 traders liquidated. Long liquidations ($279.78M) exceeded shorts ($126.51M) by 2.2x. 3

ETF Day 22: −$82.2M, ARKB leads the exit

BTC ETF net flow on June 17 (Day 22 of the current streak) reversed sharply from Day 21's +$10.2M inflow to −$82.2M outflow. 15 Fund breakdown:

Fund	June 17 flow
ARKB (Ark/21Shares)	−$43.5M
IBIT (BlackRock)	−$30.8M
GBTC (Grayscale)	−$15.5M
BTCO (Invesco/Galaxy)	−$6.4M
HODL (VanEck)	−$4.1M
FBTC (Fidelity)	+$14.0M
MSBT (Morgan Stanley)	+$4.1M
BITB, EZBC, BRRR, BTCW, BTC (mini)	$0 each
Total	−$82.2M

Source: Farside Investors. 15 ETH ETFs also net −$29.3M on the same day. Total BTC ETF AUM: $94.284B. 16

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Fear & Greed: 15, 18th straight Extreme Fear

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index (Alternative.me) dropped from 22 on June 17 to 15 on June 18 — still deep in Extreme Fear territory. 17 This extends the consecutive Extreme Fear streak to 18 days, breaking the previous record of 17 (set yesterday). The 7-day average is 17; the 30-day average is 20. Both remain entirely within the Extreme Fear range (score ≤25). The prior all-time low reading is 9 (hit earlier in June). 17

Polymarket's BTC targets for today (Jun 18 expiry)

With BTC at $63,796, the expiring June 18 price contracts show a clear line in the sand: BTC > $64,000 is a coin-flip at 43.5%, while BTC > $62,000 remains near-certain at 99.45%. 4 The Up/Down daily direction market prices Down at 93.5% versus Up at 6.5% — reflecting post-FOMC risk-off with less than 10 hours until resolution. 4

Trade ideas

Iran resolution cascade — two live markets remain. The peace deal's YES resolution opens the door on the downstream contracts. The uranium enrichment concession (63.5% Yes, +9pp) reflects trader confidence in the 60-day nuclear negotiation framework — the MOU explicitly creates a negotiating window, and the current momentum makes a concession announcement more likely than not by June 30. 9 The regime-fall contract (0.35%) is priced as near-dead — the combination of peace deal, Mojtaba Khamenei's succession as Supreme Leader, and a scheduled state funeral on July 4–9 leaves almost no near-term regime-change scenario. 9 Shorting Yes on that one costs nearly nothing and pays out at resolution.

Hormuz June-end at 12.5% — asymmetric but timing-constrained. The 12pp gap between end-June probability and end-of-day pricing reflects the physical constraint: 25 ships/day now, 40–50 ships/day needed to build toward the IMF Portwatch ≥60 threshold, and ~12 days remaining. 11 If CENTCOM announces a formal all-clear on mine-cleared transit corridors before June 25, this contract reprices significantly toward 30–40%. The fee-regime dispute is the principal downside risk: Iran insisting on "service fees" gives the US a basis to delay full clearance and maintain leverage.

Fed hike in 2026 at 52.5% — the repricing is still moving. The 22pp surge landed the contract at a coin-flip, but the SEP data supporting it (3.8% dot plot median, 13 of 18 participants at ≥3.625%, PCE revised to 3.6%) is unambiguous. 13 Markets have not yet created a July 2026 hike contract directly comparable to the existing July no-change contract; the July 25bp hike at 22.95% is the closest proxy. At $2.32M total volume and a 0.01 bid-ask spread, the standalone binary is liquid and tradeable. 4 Holding Yes above 52% into the next July payroll and CPI prints is the straightforward expression of the Warsh-hawkish thesis. The key risk: if June CPI (released July 10) shows Iran-driven energy inflation beginning to unwind as Hormuz reopens, the case for a July hike weakens materially.

BTC under $64K — the short-term setup. Today's expiring Down contract (93.5%) is essentially resolved — BTC at $63,796 would need to close above $64,000 to flip. 4 The more interesting question is the multi-day picture: ETF Day 22 flipped to −$82.2M, the 18th consecutive Extreme Fear day suggests forced de-risking is still running, and the FOMC hawkish shock has not fully digested into derivatives positioning. ARKB's −$43.5M outflow (versus IBIT's −$30.8M) is unusual given ARKB's smaller AUM — it implies large redemptions, not just passive outflows. 15 BTC > $64K at 43.5% for today's close is fairly priced. For the week: watch for whether total ETF outflows over the next three sessions trigger a break below $62,000, which would push the BTC > $62K contract from 99.45% to a genuine uncertainty.

What resolves next

Today (Jun 18): BTC price-target contracts (>$60K through >$68K) and the daily direction contract all expire end-of-day. BTC at $63,796 makes >$64K a live question.
Friday Jun 19 — Bürgenstock ceremony: Formal US-Iran MOU signing in Switzerland. The diplomatic meeting markets (Jun 19 at 54.85%, Jun 21 at 67.75%) resolve on whether the ceremony counts as a qualifying diplomatic engagement.
~Jun 25–July 1 — Hormuz mine clearance status: CENTCOM advisories and IMF Portwatch data will determine whether the end-of-June normality market (12.5%) reprices. Watch for any formal "transit corridor cleared" announcement.
July 4–9 — Khamenei state funeral: Tehran, Qom, and Mashhad ceremonies are the first real-world test of whether the ceasefire holds under Mojtaba Khamenei's leadership. No Polymarket markets exist for the succession itself — traders have marked it as settled.
July 10 — June CPI release: The single most important data point for the July FOMC hike thesis. If CPI shows energy costs beginning to normalize as Hormuz reopens, the case for a July hike weakens and the 22.95% hike-probability contract becomes the sell.

All Polymarket probabilities as of ~10:05 AM ET June 18, 2026, from Gamma API. 1 BTC price $63,796 from CoinGecko as of ~14:00 ET June 18. 14 Sports markets (FIFA World Cup 2026) dominated raw Polymarket volume — Ethiopia PM cluster ($5.3M combined 24h), Congo DR, Czechia, Colombia — but are not covered per channel scope.

封面图：图片来自 Trump formally signs U.S.-Iran deal — CBS News