SFO Deal Radar: $371 to Bogota, $696 to Singapore, and the Aeroplan Clock Is Ticking

Today's radar runs in one of the roughest Bay Area airfare environments in years. Three structural forces are squeezing supply and pushing prices up — knowing them helps you tell a real deal from normal pricing dressed up by comparison. After that, the actionable stuff.

The market you're booking into

The FAA cut SFO's maximum arrival rate from 54 to 36 flights per hour on March 31, 2026 — a 33% reduction tied to a permanent ban on simultaneous dependent approaches, combined with a six-month runway closure that started March 30.1 Brett Snyder of Cranky Flier put it directly: "Airlines are going to have to cut back schedules. Options for customers will be worse. Fares will be higher."1 AirHelp estimates around 25% of inbound SFO flights are now arriving at least 30 minutes late.2 The construction ends around October 2, but arrivals are expected to recover only to about 45/hour — still 17% below the historical baseline.

Jet fuel has roughly doubled since late February 2026 — from around $2.50 to about $5 per gallon — as a result of escalating conflict in the Middle East.3 Transatlantic routes absorb the most fuel per seat and are passing costs through most aggressively; Jesse Neugarten of Dollar Flight Club called this "the most volatile summer travel market in decades."3

Spirit Airlines ceased operations on May 2, 2026 — the first major U.S. carrier shutdown in 25 years — removing a significant block of ultra-low-cost capacity from SFO, OAK, and SJC domestic routes. United announced a 5% capacity cut; Delta trimmed roughly 3.5%.3 On Spirit's former routes (Las Vegas, Florida, select domestic hubs), baseline fares are expected to rise 20–25% within three to six months as Frontier, Allegiant, and Breeze gradually fill the gap.

The deals below beat this market. That's the frame.

Deals that expire today — book now or skip

Photo: Airport departure board. (Pexels / Josh Withers)

Aer Lingus May Sale — vacation packages up to $425 off per person (ends midnight tonight)

Aer Lingus (the Irish national carrier, part of the IAG Group) is running a May Sale on vacation packages — flight-plus-hotel bundles — with savings advertised at up to $425 per person.4 The key constraint: this is a package deal, not a standalone fare drop. If you've been eyeing a Dublin trip with hotel and want to bundle, today is the last day — book at aerlingus.com/en-us/vacations. For standalone SFO–DUB fares, current pricing runs around $830–$1,070 roundtrip depending on dates.5

Chase Ultimate Rewards → Marriott Bonvoy 65% transfer bonus (ends tonight)

From May 1 through today, Chase Ultimate Rewards (the points earned on Sapphire Reserve, Sapphire Preferred, and Ink cards) transfer to Marriott Bonvoy at a 65% bonus: 10,000 Chase points become 16,500 Marriott points.6 Frequent Miler's standing guidance: only transfer when you have a specific high-value redemption in mind. Chase points are more versatile than Marriott points for flights, so this is primarily useful if you're targeting a Marriott-category hotel that requires a large point balance.

Active cash fare windows from SFO

These fares were live within the past 24–72 hours. Flash fares on economy routes move fast; verify before booking.

Route	Basic Economy RT	Regular Economy RT	Airline	Notes
SFO→Bogota, Colombia	$371	$481	American Airlines	Travel Aug–Nov 2026
SFO→Papeete, Tahiti	$614	$824	Delta / Air France	South Pacific; Bora Bora requires separate Air Tahiti leg
SFO→Singapore (nonstop)	$696	$916	United	17-hr nonstop; Regular Economy includes 2 checked bags
SFO→Santiago, Chile	$615	$795	American	Travel dates via ITA Matrix
SFO→Prague	$631	$731	SAS	Via Copenhagen
SFO→Cabo San Lucas	$467	—	American	June 8–15 travel
SFO→Tulum, Mexico	~$331	—	American	Basic Economy

Travel flat lay with boarding pass and passport

Photo: Travel essentials. (Pexels / DΛVΞ GΛRCIΛ)

SFO → Bogota: $371 Basic Economy / $481 Regular Economy on American

The Flight Deal posted this on May 14.7 The routing is SFO–DFW–BOG–MIA–SFO. Normal price for this route runs $800–$1,000+, so the savings are genuine — 50–60% below typical. The Flight Deal notes it as "a good sale to Bogota," and the Regular Economy fare at $481 is the better pick if you're checking bags ($45 each way on Basic Economy) or want any cancellation flexibility. Travel window: late August through mid-November 2026, with November 5–12 confirmed available. Book directly on aa.com. Use ITA Matrix (matrix.itasoftware.com) to find the cheapest date combinations.7

SFO → Singapore nonstop: $696 Basic Economy / $916 Regular Economy on United

This appeared on May 8.8 SFO–SIN nonstop on United is a 17-hour ultra-long-haul. Normal price is typically $1,100–$1,600+; sub-$700 on a nonstop is the kind of fare that surfaces once or twice a year on this route. Regular Economy at $916 includes two checked bags. Availability tends to be limited — if this fare is more than two or three days old, spot-check before assuming it's still live.

SFO → Tahiti: $614 Basic Economy on Delta / Air France

Posted May 13, routing via LAX or SEA.8 Tahiti typically runs $1,200–$1,800 from SFO; $614 cuts that roughly in half. If the end goal is Bora Bora, budget separately for an Air Tahiti inter-island ticket from Papeete — that leg is not included.

Alaska Airlines SFO beach deals (one-way, Main Cabin)

Alaska is currently showing one-way Main Cabin fares from SFO on their beach-destinations page,9 with sample low dates:

SEA: $79 (May 20)
PDX: $99 (Jun 24)
LAX: $119 (Jun 10)
SAN: $124 (Jun 6)
BOS / JFK: $199 (Jun 6 / Oct 27)
SJD (Cabo): $229 (Jun 7)

These are Saver fare class, meaning no changes, no seat selection until check-in. Round-trip cost is roughly double minus any RT discount. OAK travelers: Alaska and Southwest operate heavily out of Oakland, and OAK fares on comparable leisure routes typically run 10–20% below SFO prices.

Cathay Pacific SFO → China: $853 Regular Economy (system-wide sale)

Cathay Pacific (Hong Kong flag carrier) ran a system-wide SFO-to-China sale between May 9–14, hitting six secondary cities at $853 roundtrip via Hong Kong: Ningbo, Hangzhou, Haikou, Xiamen, Fuzhou, and Chengdu.8 Travel in September–October 2026. Normal price for SFO to secondary China cities is $1,200–$2,000. U.S. citizens can enter Haikou visa-free. Verify current availability — this was posted across multiple days this week.

Airline promos with active booking windows

Carrier	Promo	Book by	Travel window
LOT Polish Airlines	Big Sale (SFO–Warsaw listed)	May 17	Seasonal; WAW-SFO route runs to Oct 22
Turkish Airlines Miles&Smiles	30% fewer miles, North America incl. SFO	May 22	Oct 1 – Dec 10, 2026
Air Canada	Premium Cabin Sale: SFO-YYZ Business $666	May 24	Jun 20 – Sep 7, 2026
Flying Blue (Air France-KLM)	May Promo Rewards: up to 25% off Europe	May 31	Through Oct 31, 2026

LOT Polish Airlines Big Sale (book by May 17)

LOT Polish Airlines (Poland's flag carrier, Star Alliance member) launched a "Big Sale" on May 12 that runs six days — through Saturday.10 San Francisco is explicitly listed among the eligible destinations alongside New York, Toronto, Rome, and Lisbon. The timing is notable: LOT launched its new Warsaw (WAW) to SFO direct service on May 6, using a Boeing 787 Dreamliner, up to four flights per week through October 22.10 The caveat: LOT's website has been intermittently blocked by bot-mitigation during research, and the specific fare prices and booking conditions weren't publicly retrievable. Check fly.lot.com directly or use a flight search engine (Google Flights, Kayak) with SFO–WAW as the route pair and travel dates in June–October.

Air Canada Premium Cabin Sale: SFO–Toronto Business $666 (book by May 24)

Air Canada is running a Premium Cabin Sale on Canada routes through May 24, with travel between June 20 and September 7.11 SFO–YYZ (Toronto) one-way Business Class: $666. SFO–YVR (Vancouver) one-way Business: $301. No promo code needed — pricing applies automatically. For context, business class SFO–YYZ during summer normally runs $1,200–$2,000+ one-way.

Turkish Airlines Miles&Smiles: 30% fewer miles for North America routes (book by May 22)

According to LoyaltyLobby, Turkish Airlines' (Star Alliance) Miles&Smiles program is offering 30% fewer miles on select North American destinations, with SFO included.12 Book by May 22; travel October 1–December 10, 2026. This is secondhand reporting — confirm the specific SFO fare and mileage requirements directly on the Miles&Smiles award search before transferring any points.

Flying Blue May Promo Rewards: Europe from 18,750 miles (book by May 31)

Air France-KLM's Flying Blue program has released its May Promo Rewards, with up to 25% off select European routes.13 Economy one-way from multiple U.S. hubs starts at 18,750 miles; premium economy from New York is 30,000 miles one-way. Book by May 31, travel through October 31. Chase Ultimate Rewards currently has a 20% transfer bonus to Flying Blue through May 27 — combining these two gives the best per-mile rate if you're targeting this window.

Miles & points: the Aeroplan deadline and active sweet spots

This section has the most time-sensitive structural change in Bay Area points travel this year.

Book Aeroplan before June 1 — prices rise for SFO→Asia

Air Canada's Aeroplan program is updating its award chart effective June 1, 2026, applying to any reservation made on or after that date.14 The increases on routes relevant to SFO:

SFO → Tokyo, Seoul, or Hong Kong (5,001–7,500 miles): Business class goes from 75,000 to 85,000 points per person (+10,000 points, +13%). First class from 110,000 to 120,000.14

SFO → Singapore (7,501–11,000 miles): Business class goes from 87,500 to 102,500 points (+15,000, +17%). Premium economy from 70,000 to 85,000.15

Ben Schlappig of One Mile at a Time wrote: "Ultra long haul business class awards between the United States and Asia (covering 7,501–11,000 miles) increase from 87,500 points to 102,500 points, so obviously I'm not very happy to see that, since it's my favorite redemption for maximizing Aeroplan points."15 Matthew Klint of Live and Let's Fly noted the transatlantic hit: "The most painful change for most of us will be North America to Europe in the 4,001–6,000 mile band, where business class rises from 70,000 to 75,000 points and first class jumps from 100,000 to 120,000 points."14

The action: If you hold Chase Ultimate Rewards, Amex Membership Rewards, Capital One, or Bilt points, all transfer to Aeroplan at 1:1 instantly. Rove Miles is running a 25% transfer bonus to Aeroplan through June 6.6 Aeroplan books across all Star Alliance partners — United, ANA, EVA, Asiana, Singapore Airlines — so even if you're flying United metal, Aeroplan pricing applies when you're booking through Air Canada's site. Lock in the lower rate before June 1.

One positive side of the devaluation: intra-Atlantic short-haul business class (0–1,000 miles) drops from 15,000 to 12,500 points.15

United MileagePlus cardmember discounts: 10–15% off awards

Since April 2, 2026, holders of any United co-branded credit card (United Explorer, United Club, United Quest, etc.) get at least 10% off miles required for United and United Express operated flights.16 Cardholders who also hold a MileagePlus Premier status (Silver, Gold, Platinum, or 1K) get at least 15%.16 The discount stacks on top of Saver-level pricing. For SFO–NRT Polaris Business, base dynamic pricing typically runs 95,000–110,000 miles; with a 15% discount that drops to roughly 80,750–93,500 miles.16 United awards carry no fuel surcharges — taxes start at $5.60. Chase Sapphire Reserve and Preferred transfer to United at 1:1 if you want to top up.

Alaska Atmos Rewards: JAL Business SFO→Tokyo from 60k

Alaska Airlines' Atmos Rewards program (the rebranded Mileage Plan) has competitive partner rates for SFO–Asia business class:17

Japan Airlines (JAL) Business Class, SFO → Tokyo: 60,000–75,000 miles one-way. Taxes typically around $19. This is cheaper than Aeroplan's current rate of 75,000 (and well below the June 1 rate of 85,000).
Starlux Airlines Business Class, SFO → Taipei: 75,000 miles one-way. Starlux is a newer Taiwanese carrier with a premium product.
SFO → Honolulu economy: from 10,000 miles one-way when Saver space is available.

Award Travel Hub's caveat applies here: "A partner award is only a sweet spot if the seat is actually bookable at a sane tax level."17 Confirm JAL Saver availability before transferring — Alaska doesn't have broad Saver access on JAL, and JAL–SFO award space is limited. Bilt Rewards transfers to Alaska at 1:1 instantly.

Transfer bonuses still running (not expiring today)

From → To	Bonus	Expires
Chase UR → Flying Blue (Air France-KLM)	+20%	May 27
Amex MR → Hilton Honors	+20%	May 30
Capital One → Qantas Frequent Flyer	+20%	May 31
Rove Miles → Aeroplan	+25%	Jun 6

Source: Frequent Miler transfer bonus tracker.6

The Chase → Flying Blue combo is worth flagging: 20% bonus + Flying Blue's May Promo Rewards (25% off Europe awards) can stack. You need to have a Chase card eligible for transfers (Sapphire Reserve, Sapphire Preferred, or Ink Business Preferred) and complete the transfer before May 27.

Citi is discontinuing its ThankYou Points sharing feature on May 17.6 If you've been pooling points with a spouse or family member to hit a redemption threshold, complete those transfers by end of day Saturday. This is particularly relevant for anyone targeting a Citi → Aeroplan or Citi → Flying Blue booking before the respective program deadlines.

Baseline: what counts as a deal departing Bay Area

A quick reference for routes where deal prices were cited above, plus common corridors. Summer 2026 pricing is running 10–20% above historical norms across the board.3

Route	"Good deal" RT	Normal RT	Cheapest month
SFO→LAX	Under $100	$100–200	September
SFO→NYC (JFK/EWR)	Under $300	$300–500	Sep–Nov
SFO→MIA/FLL	Under $250	$250–400	September
SFO→BOS	Under $300	$300–500	Sep–Oct
SFO→LAS	Under $100	$100–200	September
SFO→LON	Under $700	$700–1,200	Sep–Oct
SFO→PAR	Under $700	$700–1,200	Sep–Oct
SFO→TYO	Under $800	$800–1,500	May, Aug–Sep
SFO→ICN	Under $700	$700–1,200	May, Sep
SFO→SIN	Under $1,000	$1,000–1,500	May, Aug–Sep
SFO→MEX	Under $350	$350–600	Sep–Oct
SFO→CUN	Under $350	$350–600	Jun, Sep–Oct

Sources: Google Flights, Kayak, Travelocity route pages as of May 15, 2026.18 19 20

The most reliable single savings lever for most routes remains timing: Jesse Neugarten of Dollar Flight Club estimates that Europe fares drop 40–60% by mid-September versus peak summer.3 The SFO→Bogota ($371) and SFO→Singapore ($696) fares in today's radar both land comfortably inside "good deal" territory even against those inflated baselines. The two items that genuinely require action today are the Aer Lingus vacation package sale and the Chase → Marriott transfer bonus — both close at midnight.

Cover photo: San Francisco International Airport at night. (Pexels / Justin L U C K)