May 23 settlement recap — Iran MoU landed after the close; Trafigura pulls 51,000 tons of copper from LME

May 23 settlement recap — Iran MoU landed after the close; Trafigura pulls 51,000 tons of copper from LME

Friday's settlements printed fractional moves across all five markets — WTI +0.41% to $97.00, Brent +0.39% to $103.94, Gold −0.28% to $4,510.50, Corn +0.22% to 463.25¢, Soybeans +0.19% to 1,196.50¢, Copper +0.02% to $6.3805 — masked by a 175% WTI volume surge from Hormuz headline whiplash. The post-settlement story is larger: Trump announced Saturday morning that an Iran peace MoU is "largely negotiated," putting Hormuz reopening and a 30–60 day nuclear talks window on the table. Simultaneously, Trafigura withdrew 51,000+ tons of copper from LME on May 22 (the largest single-day drawdown since 2013), driving exchange inventories to 1974 lows ahead of a late-June US tariff ruling. CME is closed Monday for Memorial Day; next settlement is Tuesday May 27.

Commodity Price Movement Recap
Commodity Price Movement Recap@NeoDrop Official
2026/5/24 · 6:25
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Friday's settlements were quiet almost by design — thin pre-holiday volume, fractional moves across the board, and a session defined more by what traders were squaring than by what they were adding. Then Saturday morning, Trump announced a peace Memorandum of Understanding with Iran is "largely negotiated." CME is closed Monday, May 25, for Memorial Day. The next settlement prints Tuesday.

Quick-scan: May 23 front-month settlements

ContractSymbolSettlementDay chgDay %Prior close
Gold (Jun'26)GCM6$4,510.50 / oz−$12.70−0.28%$4,523.20
WTI Crude (Jul'26)CLN6$97.00 / bbl+$0.40+0.41%$96.60
Brent Crude (Jul'26)BZN6$103.94 / bbl+$0.40+0.39%$103.54
Corn (Jul'26)ZCN6463.25 ¢/bu+1.00 ¢+0.22%462.25 ¢
Soybeans (Jul'26)ZSN61,196.50 ¢/bu+2.25 ¢+0.19%1,194.25 ¢
Copper (Jul'26)HGN6$6.3805 / lb+$0.0015+0.02%$6.3790
WTI volume hit 241,610 contracts — 175% of its 65-day average — driven by Hormuz headline whiplash during the session rather than directional conviction 1. Gold volume was also elevated at 106,230 contracts (111% of the 65-day average), and copper volume ran at 189% of its 65-day average at 41,400 contracts 2 3. For a Friday afternoon in a long-weekend window, that combination of thin price moves and heavy volume is the classic signature of position squaring rather than new risk-taking.

Macro overlay: the Warsh Fed takes its first weekend

Kevin Warsh, sworn in as the 11th Federal Reserve Chair on Friday May 22 at an unusual White House East Room ceremony, now heads into his first weekend with a bond market that is actively pricing in a rate hike 4. The 30-year US Treasury yield hit 5.18% this week, the highest close since July 2007 5. The 10-year settled at 4.572% on Friday, down 1.2 bps on the session 6. CME FedWatch placed June hold probability at ~97%, but the December rate hike probability has climbed to 42% 7 — a complete reversal from expectations of two rate cuts that opened the year.
Claudia Sahm, creator of the Sahm Rule recession indicator, said she "almost fell out of my chair" when Warsh declared he does not believe in forward guidance, warning the shift could reverse 20 years of Fed transparency progress 8. Bloomberg's analysis noted Warsh will need FOMC consensus for rate and balance sheet decisions, with some members already signaling openness to a hike rather than a cut 9.
The consumer backdrop complicates any easy narrative on demand. University of Michigan's final May sentiment reading landed at 48.2 — the lowest in the survey's 74-year history 5. Real wage growth turned negative for the first time since April 2023, with inflation now outpacing wages after 35 consecutive months of positive real growth 5. Memorial Day weekend gasoline is running at $4.56/gallon — up over 50% since the Iran war began — which the Michigan survey found was cited spontaneously by respondents as a top drag on household finances 5.
The S&P Global Flash PMI for May showed the G4 output index at 50.0 — exactly stall speed — while China's manufacturing PMI flash printed at 47.70, in contraction 10. The US Manufacturing PMI had surged to 55.3 earlier in the month (a four-year high); the divergence between the US and the rest of the developed world is narrowing sharply.
EconomyMay Flash PMI (Mfg output)Direction
US~55 (earlier read)Expansion
G4 composite50.0Stall
China Mfg47.70Contraction
Eurozone~47.5Contraction

Crude oil: Iran MoU drops Saturday; Novorossiysk burns Friday night

WTI (CLN6) settled at $97.00/bbl (+$0.40, +0.41%), working through a $4.70 intraday range of $94.73 to $99.43 before closing near mid-session levels 1. Brent (BZN6) closed at $103.94/bbl (+$0.40, +0.39%), range $101.38–$106.35, with the Brent-WTI spread at $6.94/bbl 11.
The settlement was the last datapoint before Saturday's headline: Trump announced at approximately 10:44 AM ET that a deal with Iran is "largely negotiated," calling it a "Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to PEACE." 12 The framework covers an official declaration of war's end, Strait of Hormuz reopening, US lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, and 30–60 days of detailed nuclear talks afterward. Trump added: "Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly." 12
Iran's Foreign Ministry described it as a "framework agreement," with spokesperson Esmail Baghaei saying the two sides want to reach terms on "all issues of essential importance" before entering a 30-to-60-day negotiation on details 12. Pakistan's Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir met President Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Araghchi, and parliament speaker Qalibaf in Tehran on Saturday as part of the mediation track; Qatar also sent a senior official to support the effort 12.
The key unresolved issue is the same one that sank near-deals earlier: Khamenei's May 21 directive barring the export of Iran's near-weapons-grade enriched uranium. Rubio repeated the US demand that Iran must turn over highly enriched uranium and that Hormuz must reopen 12. An anonymous regional official cautioned that "last-minute disputes" could still derail the effort — a warning that carries weight given this is not the first round described as close to a conclusion.
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Novorossiysk burns; ~25% of Russian refining offline

Overnight Friday, Ukraine launched a drone swarm that Russia claims it intercepted 348 of in total. The strikes hit the Sheskharis oil terminal in Novorossiysk — Russia's largest Black Sea oil terminal, with 75 million tons per year capacity and serving as the endpoint for Transneft pipelines — plus the Grushovaya oil depot in the same city, causing fires at both facilities and wounding two people 13. Novorossiysk handles approximately 20% of Russia's crude oil shipments 13.
The same swarm hit the Metafrax chemical complex in Perm Krai — 1,700 km from Ukraine's border — which produces 900 tons per day of ammonia and 1,600+ tons per day of urea for military suppliers 13. Zelensky confirmed the SBU conducted the strikes, calling Metafrax "one of Russia's important military-industrial enterprises." This is the fourth Ukrainian refinery or oil infrastructure strike in May. Cumulative damage has taken an estimated 25% of Russian refining capacity offline or impaired 14.
Russia introduced fuel rationing in Sevastopol — 20 liters (5.3 gallons) per car — on Saturday due to what authorities called "logistical challenges" 15, a direct contradiction of Kremlin spokesman Peskov's May 21 statement that authorities saw no risk to domestic fuel supplies.

EIA draw and Hormuz toll standoff

The EIA report for the week ending May 15 showed commercial crude inventories fell 7.9 million barrels to 445 million barrels — more than double the Macquarie forecast of a 3.0 million barrel draw, and the lowest total in 11 months 16. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell an additional 9.9 million barrels to 374.2 million barrels as a DOE exchange program awarded 53.3 million barrels across four sites 16. Gasoline inventories fell 1.5 million barrels and are now 5% below the five-year average; distillates added 0.4 million barrels but remain 9% below average 16. The next EIA weekly petroleum report is delayed to May 28 due to the holiday 17.
On Hormuz logistics, Iran and Oman have been discussing a permanent toll structure — Iran's ambassador to France confirmed that parties "who wish to benefit from this traffic must also pay their share," with tolls up to $2 million per passage through the new Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) 18. Rubio called the proposed system "unacceptable," "completely illegal," and said it "would make a diplomatic deal unfeasible" 18. Five Gulf states filed a formal IMO complaint; the IMO warned the toll would set a "dangerous precedent" 18. UAE oil chief Sultan Al Jaber said: "Once you accept that a single country can hold the world's most important waterway hostage, freedom of navigation as we know it is finished." 18
US CENTCOM reported turning away more than 100 commercial vessels and disabling four since the blockade began April 13 12. One milestone came quietly: VLCC Idemitsu Maru, carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi crude, cleared Hormuz in late April and is set to arrive at Nagoya early next week — Japan's first Middle East crude delivery via Hormuz since the war began on February 28 19.
OPEC+ held no ministerial meeting this week. The next key decision is June 7, where sources cited by Reuters expect the group to agree on an 188,000 bbl/day quota increase 20. The UAE formally exited both OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, ending nearly 60 years of membership 20.
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Gold: war-risk premium starts to unwind; central banks remain the floor

COMEX Gold (GCM6) settled at $4,510.50/oz (−$12.70, −0.28%), in a $4,488–$4,547 session range 2. The WSJ reported the most-active contract settling at approximately $4,521 for a weekly loss of about 0.76% 2 — gold's second consecutive weekly decline. On Saturday, with the Iran MoU now public, COMEX August gold futures extended the drop to −0.44% at $4,556.40 and spot was indicated around $4,508–4,510 21.
Two forces are pulling in opposite directions. The near-term headwind: the Friday session closed with the 30-year Treasury above 5.08% and the bond market pricing a hike, which lifts the opportunity cost of holding gold 22. Iran ceasefire optimism is also trimming the war-risk premium that has been embedded in gold since February 22. Kitco's Neils Christensen wrote that "rising real rates remain the biggest near-term obstacle for the sector" but added that "the same forces weighing on precious metals today may ultimately become the catalyst for renewed demand tomorrow" — specifically if bond markets turn disorderly and sovereign bonds lose their safe-haven status 22.
The structural floor is central bank demand. Goldman Sachs revised its central bank gold demand nowcast to approximately 60 tonnes per month through 2026, up from 50 tonnes in March and 29 tonnes under its original methodology, after finding that prior estimates had missed sovereign buying through London vaults since August 2025 23. Goldman reiterated its $5,400/oz year-end 2026 target and said the risks to that forecast are "significantly skewed to the upside." 23 World Gold Council Q1 2026 data shows central banks net-bought 244 tonnes in the quarter (+3% YoY), while total gold demand reached 1,230.9 tonnes (+2% YoY), the highest Q1 figure in the WGC's dataset 22.
One incremental headwind emerged Saturday: India raised gold import duty from 6% to 15% — the steepest single increase on record — alongside broader regulatory tightening to conserve foreign exchange reserves. The World Gold Council projects India's gold demand will decline 50–60 tonnes (~10% year-over-year) in 2026 as a result 24.
The bottom line for positioning: a clean Hormuz reopening would likely pull $200–$300 out of spot price quickly, per analyst estimates. The MoU, if it holds, moves that scenario from theoretical to plausible over a 30–60 day window.

Grains: USDA flash sales, ethanol high, and crop progress all point higher

Corn (ZCN6) settled at 463.25¢/bu (+1.00¢, +0.22%), up 7.5¢ on the week 25. Soybeans (ZSN6) added +2.25¢ to 1,196.50¢/bu (+0.19%), with July beans up 19.5¢ on the week 26. Barchart reported: "Corn futures closed with contracts steady to 1¼ cents higher on the Friday session." 25 Barchart also noted: "Soybeans held higher into the Friday close, as contracts were steady to 2¼ cents in the green." 26
Three data points built the floor under grains heading into the weekend.
Weekly export sales (USDA, May 21, data through May 14). Old-crop corn net sales were 2,125,300 metric tons — 83.7 million bushels — a figure 71% above the four-week average, driven by Japan (779,800 MT) and South Korea (463,800 MT) 27. Old-crop soybeans recovered to 351,400 MT, 62% above the four-week average, after several consecutive weeks near marketing-year lows; soybean meal net sales hit 475,700 MT, 71% above average 28. Brownfield Ag News called it a "generally solid week for U.S. export sales," adding that corn "was considerably larger than average thanks to the key customers of Japan and South Korea." 27
Friday flash sales (USDA, May 22). Three large private export sales were announced: 493,700 MT of corn to Mexico (225,000 MT old-crop, 268,700 MT new-crop) 29, 110,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations 29, and 252,000 MT of soybean meal to unknown destinations 29. China appeared on none of the buyer lists — zero confirmed US corn or soybean purchases on the day, despite the White House's May 17 announcement of a $17 billion per year agricultural commitment from Beijing 29.
Ethanol production at a five-week high. EIA data (week ending May 15) showed US ethanol output at 1.11 million barrels per day — up 2.7% week-over-week and 7.2% year-over-year 30. StoneX's Scott Magnuson noted: "Grains were further buoyed by the EIA's announcement that weekly Ethanol output climbed to a five-week high of 1.11 mln barrels a day, driving domestic corn demand." 31
Managed money corn net longs trimmed 6,129 contracts to 293,354 contracts in the CFTC report through May 19 — pulling back from the prior week's elevated position, though still firmly bullish 25.
On crop progress: as of May 18, US corn planting stood at 76% complete (in line with a year ago, six percentage points ahead of the five-year average) and soybeans at 67% (14 percentage points ahead of the five-year average) 32. In South America, Argentina's Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) raised its 2025/26 soybean estimate by approximately 55 million bushels to 1.841 billion bushels (50.1 million metric tons), while maintaining its corn estimate at 64 million metric tons 33.
One negative note: winter wheat's good/excellent rating stands at 27% — the lowest in a century at this point in the season, per the May 18 USDA crop progress report 32. Kansas is projected to yield around 37 bushels per acre against a normal of 50+. The damage to hard red winter wheat is already locked in regardless of weekend rains.

Copper: Trafigura pulls 51,000 tons from LME — the largest single-day withdrawal since 2013

COMEX Copper (HGN6) settled at $6.3805/lb (+$0.0015, +0.02%), effectively flat on the session in a $6.3245–$6.4085 range 3. The headline was not in the price — it was in the warehouse.
On May 22, Trafigura Group withdrew more than 51,000 tons of copper from LME warehouses in a single day, worth over $700 million at approximately $13,660/ton — the largest single-day LME copper withdrawal since 2013 34. The withdrawals came from warehouses in the US and Asia; Trafigura cited "trading opportunities in American and Chinese markets." 34 LME copper inventories are now at their lowest level since 1974, per Reuters reporting 34.
The US tariff angle explains the direction of flow. Since the US Section 232 copper tariff probe began in February 2025, COMEX copper stocks have surged roughly 550% as traders pre-position inventory in US warehouses ahead of a possible tariff that would make imports more expensive 34. The tariff ruling is expected in late June 2026. CryptoBriefing observed: "When visible inventories on the world's primary copper exchange sit at their lowest point since 1974, the market's buffer against supply shocks is essentially gone." 34
SHFE copper gained 0.58% overnight on Saturday, with base metals broadly higher: LME and SHFE tin both up over 1%, SHFE lead up 0.3% 35. Yangshan copper premium — the surcharge Chinese importers pay over LME for bonded-warehouse material in Shanghai — was last reported at $73/tonne on May 22, its highest since mid-April 22.
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Weekend watch: three threads to track before Tuesday's open

CME is closed Monday, May 25. The first settlements after this article are Tuesday, May 27 — giving the market a 72-hour window with no exchange price discovery. Three threads carry the most weight.
Iran deal status. The MoU framework — Hormuz reopening, war declaration end, 30–60 days of nuclear talks — is the highest-impact variable for crude and gold. If the deal progresses toward a formal announcement over the weekend, WTI's Hormuz risk premium (estimated at $10–15/bbl by several analysts) comes under pressure. If the uranium sticking point breaks the framework, expect a gap higher on Tuesday open. A regional official's caution that "last-minute disputes" could blow up negotiations is worth weighting: markets have seen multiple near-deal headlines since February.
Gold's technical setup. GCM6 settled with RSI near 46 and an undecided doji pattern. Key support sits at $4,488–$4,441; first resistance at $4,577 36. A credible Hormuz reopening timeline pulls gold toward $4,300–$4,350 (war-premium unwind); a breakdown in talks, combined with the bond market's current hike pricing, could see gold consolidate above $4,441 with central bank demand as the cushion.
EIA data gap. The weekly petroleum status report, normally released Wednesday, has been pushed to May 28. Combined with three days without CME settlement, Tuesday's energy open will be absorbing a longer-than-usual information gap — including any weekend developments in Novorossiysk, Sevastopol, or Hormuz — with no midweek government data to re-anchor the narrative.
Cover photo: aerial view of an oil tanker at sea. Photo by Rafid Sahrear via Pexels.

参考ソース

  1. 1MarketWatch — Crude Oil Jul 2026 (CLN26)
  2. 2MarketWatch — Gold Jun 2026 (GCM26)
  3. 3MarketWatch — Copper Jul 2026 (HGN26)
  4. 4Fortune — Trump on new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh
  5. 5Bilello Blog — State of the Markets in 10 Charts
  6. 6Investing.com — DXY and rates data
  7. 7CME Group — FedWatch Tool
  8. 8Fortune — Claudia Sahm on Warsh Fed
  9. 9Yahoo Finance / Bloomberg — Warsh Fed regime change
  10. 10Seeking Alpha — Flash PMIs signal stagflation
  11. 11MarketWatch — Brent Crude Jul 2026 (BZCN26)
  12. 12Spectrum News / AP — Trump says Iran MoU 'largely negotiated'
  13. 13Kyiv Independent — Ukraine strikes Novorossiysk, Perm Krai
  14. 14OilPrice.com — Ukraine hits 300,000-bpd Gazprom Neft refinery
  15. 15Reuters — Russia rations fuel in Sevastopol
  16. 16Rigzone — US crude oil stocks drop almost 8MM barrels WoW
  17. 17World Energy News — Energy data schedule for holiday week
  18. 18gCaptain / Bloomberg — Iran and Oman discuss Hormuz toll regime
  19. 19OilPrice.com — Japan to welcome first Hormuz crude cargo since war began
  20. 20investingLive — OPEC+ likely to agree 188,000 bpd hike at June 7 meeting
  21. 21APA.az — Gold futures decline on commodity markets
  22. 22Kitco — Gold, silver and the new fear behind elevated bond yields
  23. 23Kitco — Goldman Sachs: central banks buying more gold than expected
  24. 24Seeking Alpha / World Gold Council — India gold market: import tightening
  25. 25Barchart — Corn Jul '26 Futures (ZCN26)
  26. 26Barchart — Soybean Jul '26 Futures (ZSN26)
  27. 27Brownfield Ag News — Big week for old-crop corn export sales
  28. 28USDA FAS — Weekly Export Sales, May 21, 2026
  29. 29Farm Progress — Flash grain sales announced Friday May 22
  30. 30DTN PF — EIA: US ethanol stocks stay flat as production rises
  31. 31StoneX — The MarketWatch Update May 22
  32. 32DTN PF — Crop Progress: corn 76% planted, soybeans 67% planted
  33. 33FarmProgress — Afternoon market recap
  34. 34CryptoBriefing — Trafigura pulls over 51,000 tons of copper from LME
  35. 35SMM — Crude oil weakened; base metals generally rose
  36. 36FXStreet via Mitrade — Gold price forecast: XAU/USD looks for direction above $4,500
Commodity Price Movement Recap
Commodity Price Movement Recap

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