Iran strikes collapse the June curve — and Strategy breaks its no-sell streak

Coverage window: May 31, 14:28 ET → June 1, 14:00 ET (~23.5 hours)

The weekend handed Polymarket three simultaneous repricing events. US CENTCOM struck Iranian radar and drone sites at Goruk and Qeshm Island after Iran downed a US MQ-1 drone; Iran's IRGC retaliated against a US airbase and fired two ballistic missiles at US forces in Kuwait (intercepted). That one-two punch drove the Iran June 7 peace deal from 11.5% to 5.5%, the June 7 ceasefire extension from 33.5% to 13.0% in a single day, and pushed Brent crude to $96.42 — up more than 4% from Friday's $92. 1 2

Simultaneously, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosed in an SEC Form 8-K that it sold 32 BTC between May 26–31 — its first net sale since December 2022, breaking three-plus years of accumulation-only policy. 3 BTC spot fell to $71,549 (−2.90%), approaching the $71,400 support level that has held since the 10-day ETF outflow streak began. The related Polymarket market sits at 62.95% YES but remains UMA-disputed.

And former Fed Chair Jerome Powell received the JFK Profile in Courage Award on Saturday night, using the occasion to defend Fed independence without offering any rate signals — while zero-cuts 2026 quietly ticked up another 0.95pp to 68.85% and Warsh enters Day 10 of silence with the June 6 FOMC blackout five trading days away. 4

This window at a glance

Market	Current prob	24h change	24h volume
US x Iran peace deal — Jun 7	5.5%	−6.0pp	$1.79M
US x Iran peace deal — Jun 15	12.5%	−7.0pp	$606K
US x Iran peace deal — Jun 30	22.5%	−7.0pp	$386K
US x Iran peace deal — Dec 31	70.5%	0.0pp (wk: −12pp)	$257K
Iran ceasefire extension — Jun 3	4.5%	−9.0pp	$600K
Iran ceasefire extension — Jun 7	13.0%	−20.5pp	$1.51M
Iran ceasefire extension — Jun 30	52.5%	−13.0pp	$700K
Iran ceasefire continues — May 24 (UMA disputed)	99.95% YES	—	$1.86M
Fed zero cuts in 2026	68.85%	+0.95pp	$28K
BTC spot	$71,549	−2.90%	—
BTC ETF net flow (Day 10, last confirmed)	−$125.3M	streak: 10 days	Jun 1 data pending
Strategy sells BTC by May 31 (UMA disputed)	62.95%	+54.85pp prev 24h	$10.1M
Brent crude	$96.42	+$4.50 (+4.9%)	—
10Y Treasury yield	4.504%	+7bp	—
Fear & Greed Index	29 (Fear)	+1 vs prior	—

Iran: the June curve collapses, December holds alone

The weekend military exchange made the near-term Iran curve functionally unrecognizable from Friday's close.

Tehran anti-US billboard with Trump imagery, May 30 2026 — Tehran street billboard depicting Trump and the Strait of Hormuz, photographed during the weekend exchange. 1

The sequence: Friday May 30, the NYT reported Trump tightened draft peace deal terms and sent them back to Iran — reversing the tone from his "largely finalized" declaration a week earlier. 5 Over Saturday–Sunday, CENTCOM launched "self-defense" strikes on Iranian radar and drone infrastructure at Goruk and Qeshm Island (Strait of Hormuz), destroying air defenses, a ground control station, and two one-way attack drones. The stated trigger: Iran had shot down a US MQ-1 drone over international waters. 2 On Monday morning, Iran's IRGC retaliated by targeting a US airbase at Sirik Island and firing two ballistic missiles at US forces in Kuwait — both intercepted with no reported US casualties. 1

The full peace deal term structure as of 14:00 ET June 1: 6

Deadline	Current prob	Day change	Week change	Vol (total)
Jun 7	5.5%	−6.0pp	−46.5pp	$6.96M
Jun 15	12.5%	−7.0pp	−36.0pp	$5.38M
Jun 30	22.5%	−7.0pp	−37.0pp	$16.88M
Jul 31	36.5%	−5.0pp	−35.0pp	$3.65M
Dec 31	70.5%	0.0pp	−12.0pp	$6.38M

The pattern in that table: every active deadline from Jun 7 through Jul 31 moved −5 to −7pp in a single day, a clean systemic repricing rather than noise in any single market. Dec 31 at 70.5% didn't move at all — the market still assigns 2-in-3 odds to a deal by year-end, but has essentially given up on anything before August.

The ceasefire extension curve shows the same shape at shorter time horizons, with one standout: the June 7 ceasefire extension fell 20.5pp in a single day (33.5% → 13.0%), the largest single-day collapse of any Iran market this cycle. 7 The June 3 ceasefire extension sits at 4.5% — two days away, priced as near-impossible.

The diplomatic context makes these probabilities harder to dismiss as pure sentiment. Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, told Al Jazeera that Iranian sources described their own negotiating posture as going "to these talks every time with our finger on the trigger, expecting bombs to fall from the sky." 1 Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf issued a formal statement: "There is no trust in the enemy's words and promises. Our only criterion is to achieve tangible results before we fulfil our commitments in return." 1 Against that backdrop, Trump's Truth Social response — "Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end – It always does!" — framed the situation very differently. 8

One carry-over item: the May 24 ceasefire continuity market (id 2308197, $30.57M volume) entered its third UMA dispute cycle — six entries in the resolution status log, no end date set. The market prices 99.95% YES but remains legally unresolved, with $30.57M in open interest effectively frozen. 9

Tradeable setups:

Short Jun 7 peace deal YES at 5.5¢: The window is six days. No negotiating session is currently confirmed. Trump hardened terms Friday; CENTCOM struck Saturday–Sunday; Iran fired missiles Monday. A YES here would require Trump to issue a surprise joint announcement before June 7 — possible, but the prior six weekly deadlines all resolved NO. The base case is sub-3% by Wednesday.
Jun 30 peace deal at 22.5¢ — caution: It fell 37pp in one week. If Iran's "finger on the trigger" posture persists through June, the realistic support floor is closer to the 15% range. Only a confirmed resumption of talks moves this back toward 30%.
Brent crude long as Iran hedge: Chris Beauchamp, IG's chief market analyst, said "It is not hard to imagine both oil prices breaching $100 again, putting pressure on equity markets." 10 Brent at $96 is now up more than $5 from Friday. The May drop of −19.3% (driven by deal expectations) is already half-reversed in one session.

BTC: Strategy's first sale in 3 years, ETF streak holds at 10 days

Strategy's 8-K confirms the sale happened: 32 BTC sold at an average of $77,135 between May 26–31, generating $2.5M. 3 The proceeds went to pay dividends on STRC (Strategy's perpetual preferred stock, currently yielding 11.5%). Holdings drop to 843,706 BTC at an average cost of $75,699, with a total cost basis of approximately $63.9B. At today's spot price of $71,549, that's a paper loss of roughly $2.9B. 11

Michael Saylor portrait — Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor. 3

The symbolism is larger than the number. A 32-BTC sale — 0.004% of Strategy's holdings — has no material impact on their treasury. But it breaks the "never sell" narrative that has defined the company's identity since 2020. Michael Saylor has previously described his position as being a net accumulator, and in Q1 earnings characterized the math as needing only 2.3% annual BTC appreciation to cover STRC dividends indefinitely without selling. The 8-K implies that math hasn't held at current prices. 11

The Polymarket market "MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31" (id 2169995) sits at 62.95% YES with $18.43M total volume — $10.11M in the last 24 hours alone — but remains in UMA-disputed status (proposed → disputed → proposed → disputed). 12 The facts support YES, but the oracle dispute may center on whether 32 BTC constitutes "sells any Bitcoin" under the market's resolution criteria, or whether the 8-K filing date (June 1) matters for a market with a May 31 deadline. The adjacent long-dated market "MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___" (id 16167) is already at 84% probability, reflecting the market's expectation that more sales will follow.

Spot BTC fell to $71,549 (−2.90%), closing in on the $71,400 support level. The Fear & Greed index ticked up one point to 29 (Fear). 13

The ETF outflow streak stands at 10 confirmed trading days (May 15–29), cumulative −$2.97B. The May 27 session alone was −$733.4M, the worst single day on record. June 1 data won't be available until after 4:00 PM ET market close — as of writing, Farside shows all dashes. The streak's terminal trajectory matters: last week's flows were decelerating (May 29 at −$125.3M vs. the −$733.4M peak). Whether that deceleration continues or reverses is the single most important BTC data point arriving today. 14 13

チャートを読み込んでいます…

One signal worth watching that cuts against the bearish case: the sell-off is partly a rotation, not pure exit. HYPE ETF (Hyperliquid's native token ETF) took in over $100M across the past two weeks — an all-time record rate of inflows for any spot crypto ETF launch. XRP ETF added $15.2M last week, Solana ETF $2.36M. The outflows are concentrated in BTC and ETH; capital is moving within the crypto category, not necessarily leaving it. 15

Tradeable setups:

Watch Day 11 ETF data after 4 PM ET today: The deceleration from −$733M (May 27) to −$125M (May 29) is the key pattern. If June 1 comes in below −$100M or turns flat, the structural selling argument weakens. IBIT (BlackRock's BTC ETF) is the lead indicator — it drove the majority of peak outflows and its weekly trajectory matters more than the daily total.
$71,400 support is the line: BTC is $149 above it at writing. A confirmed close below $71,400, especially if paired with a fresh large ETF outflow number, stacks two bearish signals simultaneously. The $69K–$70K range is the next visible support zone if $71,400 breaks.
Strategy UMA resolution — monitor, don't trade: The oracle dispute is in its second cycle; no trading edge exists while it's unresolved. If UMA resolves YES, $18.43M in outstanding contracts settle. The more informative signal is the long-dated "sells by ___" market at 84% — that already prices in more sales coming.

Fed: Powell's stress test speech, Warsh hits Day 10, zero-cuts at 68.85%

Powell received the JFK Profile in Courage Award Saturday evening in Boston — granted, as the Kennedy Foundation stated, because he protected the Fed's independence "in the face of years of personal attacks and threats from the highest levels of government." 4 The speech ran approximately 1,300 words, never mentioned Trump by name, and contained zero rate signals.

The most quotable line: "Like many other institutions, the Fed has been undergoing a stress test." And then the explicit warning: "The Fed's credibility would be lost" if political pressure succeeded in directing monetary policy decisions. 4 A notable procedural point, flagged by Politico: Powell, who stepped down as Chair last month, retained his seat on the Fed's Board of Governors — a position he holds until January 2028. That move denied the Trump administration one additional board appointment. 16

Markets largely shrugged. Polymarket's zero-cuts 2026 market moved +0.95pp to 68.85% — a continuation of the same slow grind that has taken it from roughly 56% thirty days ago to its current level. The 24-hour volume was only $28K on the zero-cuts market, suggesting the Powell speech generated zero fresh positioning. 17 The rate-cut probability distribution now reads: 0 cuts 68.85%, 1 cut 17.5%, 2 cuts 7.5%, 3 cuts 2.9%.

Kevin Warsh, the sitting Chair, is now Day 10 of post-inauguration silence. The FOMC blackout begins June 6 (Saturday), leaving him five trading days — June 2 through June 5 — to make any public statement before going dark until June 18. Friday's May jobs report (non-farm payrolls, June 5) is the last major macro data before the blackout. Any Warsh comments this week, particularly on inflation or the policy path, carry unusually high market impact given the vacuum.

The macro context for the Fed: Brent at $96 (+4.9% today) and 10-year Treasuries at 4.504% (+7bp) both tightened financial conditions. The AP's bond market analysis noted that roughly 40% of recent 30-year Treasury yield increases are attributable to Iran/tariff-driven inflation expectations — not just fiscal concerns. 18 That puts oil prices in the direct transmission channel from geopolitics to Fed expectations.

Tradeable setups:

Hold zero-cuts 2026 YES at 68.85¢: Oil at $96 adds an inflationary input; Brent at $100 — a level IG's Beauchamp called "not hard to imagine" — would make any 2026 cut politically and mathematically difficult. The 30-day trend has been +12.55pp; there's no visible catalyst to reverse it before the May jobs report.
Monitor Warsh's communication window (June 2–5): Any statement hinting at hike openness pushes zero-cuts toward 72–73%. Any dovish signal (acknowledging slowing growth, employment softening) could knock it back below 66%. This is the highest-optionality event in the Fed space before the June 17 FOMC meeting.
Fed June 2026 meeting market: Polymarket's June FOMC market prices no-change at 98.25%, 25bps cut at 0.85%. No real edge there — it's already a near-certainty hold. The signal to watch is whether June 17 is now priced as a hold leading into a hike or a hold leading into eventual cuts.

Prediction market regulation: Trump's CFTC endorsement and a crowded litigation calendar

Trump posted on Truth Social (May 27) that it is "critically important" for the CFTC to have exclusive authority over prediction markets, calling state-level opponents — specifically naming Chris Christie, Letitia James, Tim Walz, and JB Pritzker — "SCUM." 19 The White House's Office of Management and Budget is reviewing a CFTC rule proposal, though the public filing offers few specifics. The intervention marks a shift: in earlier comments Trump said "I was never much in favor of it" regarding prediction markets.

The conflict-of-interest dimension is unavoidable. The New Yorker's John Cassidy wrote: "It certainly looks like the agency is now the creature of the Trumps and their wealthy pals." 20 Trump Jr. serves as advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket; his firm 1789 Capital has invested in Polymarket. The CFTC's own investigation into Trump-related trading was closed; 1789 Capital's investment followed. Davina Hurt, a business ethics researcher at Santa Clara University's Markkula Center, called the structure "at minimum, a profound conflict-of-interest concern." 19

The litigation queue for the coming week is dense. Three court deadlines fall between June 3–5: a Connecticut motion to dismiss in the CFTC's suit (June 3), an Ohio response brief in Kalshi's Sixth Circuit appeal (June 4), and Kalshi's response to the Ho-Chunk Nation's amended complaint (June 5). House Oversight Chairman James Comer's June 5 document deadline — demanding identity verification and unusual transaction records from both Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan — is the most politically visible. Comer told CNBC the probe is dual-purpose: "to uncover insider trading AND to prove a case that we've got to pass some type of legislation." 21 The June 3–5 window is the realistic pre-deadline leak period.

Wintermute, the algorithmic trading firm (managing approximately $2B in crypto assets), entered prediction market making this week — providing continuous two-sided liquidity across Kalshi and Polymarket. 22 That follows similar moves from institutional names over the past two months. Prediction market year-to-date volume in 2026 has reached approximately $60B (Kalshi + Polymarket combined), already exceeding all of 2025's $51B total. 21

Gavel beside legal documents — prediction market litigation deadlines — Three Kalshi and Polymarket court deadlines fall between June 3–5. 23

Tradeable setups:

The Comer deadline is event risk, not a catalyst: Document disclosure typically doesn't move prediction market probabilities the same day. Watch the June 7–10 window for any legislative language emerging from Comer's office — that's where actual prediction market regulatory risk would surface.
CFTC-favored outcome is already priced: Trump's Truth Social endorsement + OMB review + sole-commissioner Michael Selig's control over the agency all point toward federal preemption. The asymmetric risk is a judicial ruling in one of the 17+ active state suits that goes against CFTC. TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg's read: "We continue to give the advantage to the states in this fight... Litigation could still take two years or longer to fully play out." 23

Watchlist — next 72 hours

Date / time	Event	Current market signal	Signal threshold
Jun 1 (after US close, ~4:30 PM ET)	BTC ETF Day 11 flow data	10-day streak, −$2.97B cumulative	Below −$100M = streak extends; flat or positive = inflection signal
Jun 1 (ongoing)	Iran ceasefire extension — Jun 3 deadline	4.5% YES	Near-certain NO; monitors any surprise US announcement
Jun 2–5	Warsh first public statement window	Day 10 of silence	Any hike hint → zero-cuts toward 72–73%; dovish signal → back below 66%
Jun 3	Iran ceasefire extension — Jun 3	4.5% YES	Second-consecutive near-zero resolution if no announcement
Jun 3	CFTC suit (CT) — motion to dismiss due	—	First judicial test of CFTC exclusive jurisdiction argument
Jun 5	May jobs report (non-farm payrolls)	—	Last major macro data before FOMC blackout; weak jobs = cut narrative creeps back
Jun 5	Comer document deadline — Kalshi/Polymarket CEOs	—	Pre-deadline leak window Jun 3–5; any document release moves legislative risk
Jun 6	FOMC blackout begins	—	Warsh window closes until Jun 18
Jun 7	US x Iran peace deal — Jun 7	5.5% YES	Next term-structure checkpoint; a YES would require weekend surprise announcement
Jun 7	Iran ceasefire extension — Jun 7	13.0% YES	−20.5pp in one day; whether it falls further toward June 3's 4.5% is the key read
Jun 16–17	Warsh's first FOMC meeting	—	First concrete policy signal from new Chair

The structural read as June opens under fire: Iran's June calendar is now effectively priced as dead. The market's live Iran position is Dec 31 (70.5%) — the only remaining date where traders still assign meaningful probability to a deal. Brent at $96 reintroduces oil as a direct Fed input; the May PCE (already 3.8%) plus $96 crude is a difficult combination for anyone pricing rate cuts back into 2026. And Strategy's first BTC sale in three years, however small, removes one layer of the "permanent accumulation" narrative that has supported MSTR's premium to NAV — the mNAV (market-to-NAV ratio, measuring MSTR stock price relative to the value of its BTC holdings) is already at 0.97 — meaning the stock now trades at a slight discount to the underlying BTC. Whether that number holds, falls, or recovers depends heavily on where Day 11 ETF flows come in today.

Cover image: Jerome Powell at the 2026 JFK Profile in Courage Award ceremony with Caroline Kennedy and Jack Schlossberg, JFK Presidential Library. (AP Photo / Charles Krupa)

Iran strikes collapse the June curve — and Strategy breaks its no-sell streak

This window at a glance

Iran: the June curve collapses, December holds alone

BTC: Strategy's first sale in 3 years, ETF streak holds at 10 days

Fed: Powell's stress test speech, Warsh hits Day 10, zero-cuts at 68.85%

Prediction market regulation: Trump's CFTC endorsement and a crowded litigation calendar

Watchlist — next 72 hours

参考ソース