Crude breaches $100 as Hormuz slows, copper rally breaks: weekly settlements, Sep. 4–10 (2026)

For the week through Thursday, September 10, 2026, crude oil dominated the commodity complex as Brent broke past $100 per barrel on escalating Middle East conflict and a sharp drop in Strait of Hormuz tanker transits. Copper plunged 2% from all-time highs after U.S. refined copper tariff proposals stalled, while gold fell 1.5% as sticky producer prices and solid employment prints pushed September Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations to 70%. Soybeans gained 1.7% on heavy flash export buying from China, and corn settled slightly lower as early harvest progress began across the southern Midwest.

Data cutoff: 5:00 p.m. ET on September 10, 2026. Percentage changes compare the identical fixed futures contract between the Friday, September 4 close proxy and the Thursday, September 10 settlement. MarketWatch historical close figures represent close proxies rather than exchange-certified settlement benchmarks. Covered-week trading ranges reflect the lowest and highest traded prints across the five trading sessions. Weekly volume and open-interest changes remain Data temporarily unavailable because comparable exchange clearing feeds were not available across all six contracts at the cutoff.

Settlement snapshot

Market	Fixed contract	Sep. 4 reference	Sep. 10 settlement	Week-over-week move	Sep. 4–10 derived range	Sep. 10 session range	Sep. 10 volume / 65-day average	Open interest	Week-over-week volume / open-interest change
Brent	ICE Dec. 2026 (`BRNZ26`) 1	$92.32 close proxy 1	$102.72 1	+11.27% ($102.72 ÷ $92.32 − 1) 1	$89.80–$103.87, derived 1	$96.14–$103.87 1	462.26K / 181.10K 1	Data temporarily unavailable	Data temporarily unavailable
WTI	NYMEX Nov. 2026 (`CLX26`) 2	$88.57 close proxy 2	$98.40 2	+11.10% ($98.40 ÷ $88.57 − 1) 2	$85.92–$100.03, derived 2	$99.63–$100.03 2	291 / 84.15K 2	Data temporarily unavailable	Data temporarily unavailable
Soybeans	CBOT Nov. 2026 (`SX26`) 3	1,309.75¢/bu close proxy 3	1,332.25¢/bu 3	+1.72% (1,332.25 ÷ 1,309.75 − 1) 3	1,304.00–1,333.50¢/bu, derived 3	1,305.00–1,333.50¢/bu 3	151.47K / 129.67K 3	491,495 3	Data temporarily unavailable
Corn	CBOT Dec. 2026 (`CZ26`) 4	536.75¢/bu close proxy 4	533.75¢/bu 4	-0.56% (533.75 ÷ 536.75 − 1) 4	526.50–544.75¢/bu, derived 4	526.50–534.50¢/bu 4	224.97K / 224.15K 4	Data temporarily unavailable	Data temporarily unavailable
Gold	COMEX Dec. 2026 (`GCZ26`) 5	$4,476.60 close proxy 5	$4,407.30 5	-1.55% ($4,407.30 ÷ $4,476.60 − 1) 5	$4,357.90–$4,537.80, derived 5	$4,357.90–$4,363.30 5	88 / 85.30K 5	Data temporarily unavailable	Data temporarily unavailable
Copper	COMEX Dec. 2026 (`HGZ26`) 6	$6.6825/lb close proxy 6	$6.5475/lb 6	-2.02% ($6.5475 ÷ $6.6825 − 1) 6	$6.5160–$6.8940/lb, derived 6 7	$6.5305–$6.5470/lb 6	42 / 16.23K 6	Data temporarily unavailable	Data temporarily unavailable

The snapshot ranks returns across the six tracked contracts: Brent crude led gains at +11.27%, closely followed by WTI at +11.10% and soybeans at +1.72%. Corn slipped 0.56%, COMEX gold lost 1.55%, and COMEX copper dropped 2.02% after setting record highs earlier in the week.

Oil: crude surges past $100 on Hormuz bottleneck

December Brent crude gained 11.27%, advancing from an opening reference of $92.32 to settle at $102.72 per barrel. November WTI crude jumped 11.10%, rising from $88.57 to $98.40 per barrel and trading as high as $100.03 on Thursday. Both contracts broke out of their late-August ranges as maritime choke points and refinery disruptions squeezed physical supply. 1 2

The primary catalyst was the tightening bottleneck in the Persian Gulf. Reuters reported that daily vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to 7 ships on Wednesday from 12 on Tuesday, falling well below the 10-day moving average of 14 transits. Marine shippers halted voyages following expanded combat operations in the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. Concurrently, Ukrainian drone strikes damaged Russian refining infrastructure, compounding an international squeeze on middle distillates. U.S. national average retail diesel surpassed $6.00 per gallon for the first time, while Petrobras announced refinery diesel price increases of roughly 1 real per liter. 8

Official inventory data confirmed heavy domestic refinery absorption. For the week ended September 4, the Energy Information Administration reported that commercial crude inventories decreased 0.4 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels, matching the five-year seasonal average. U.S. refineries processed 17.6 million barrels per day at a 97.8% utilization rate. Total commercial petroleum inventories expanded by 6.3 million barrels, driven by a 2.1 million-barrel build in distillates and a 1.3 million-barrel build in finished motor gasoline. Four-week total product supplied averaged 20.1 million barrels per day, down 3.7% from the year-ago period. 9

On the supply management front, seven OPEC+ member states—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—issued a joint statement on September 6 reaffirming their commitment to market stability. The group announced no emergency production increases, allowing physical shipping constraints to dictate spot crude pricing. 10

The next confirmation point is whether daily Hormuz vessel counts stabilize near the 14-ship baseline, alongside product inventory adjustments in the next EIA release.

Copper: record rally snaps on stalled U.S. tariff plan

December COMEX copper declined 2.02%, dropping from $6.6825 to settle at $6.5475 per pound. The settlement masked an aggressive intraweek reversal: copper set consecutive records over four trading sessions, reaching an all-time peak settlement of $6.8885 per pound on Wednesday, September 9, before tumbling more than 5% on Thursday to a session low of $6.5160. 6 7

A policy shift in Washington triggered the selloff. Mining.com and Reuters reported that the White House paused implementation of planned import tariffs on refined copper. Administration officials cited concerns that higher import duties would raise manufacturing costs across domestic electrical and automotive supply chains ahead of the November congressional elections. Because speculative positioning had bid COMEX contracts to historic premiums over the London Metal Exchange to capture tariff arbitrage, news of the delay prompted fast long liquidation by macro funds. 7

Macro headwinds accelerated the liquidation. With copper's statistical correlation to the S&P 500 hovering at multi-decade highs, Thursday's surge in energy prices and Treasury yields forced multi-asset funds to trim exposure across base metals. 7

The next confirmation point is whether the COMEX-LME price spread narrows back to standard freight parity as warehouse deliveries adjust to the paused tariff timetable.

Gold: hot PPI and labor prints lift Fed hike odds

December COMEX gold fell 1.55%, declining from $4,476.60 to settle at $4,407.30 per troy ounce. Intraday trading touched a low of $4,357.90, paring an initial test of $4,537.80 established early in the week. 5

Macro data released throughout the week shifted interest-rate expectations. On September 4, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls expanded by 162,000 jobs in August, substantially exceeding consensus expectations of 56,000, with July figures revised upward to +21,000. The print pushed two-year Treasury yields to 4.37% and lifted the U.S. dollar index to 99.17. 11

Inflation data published on September 10 cemented those rate pressures. The August Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4% month over month and 5.4% year over year, driven by a 4.2% jump in energy costs and a 24.1% surge in diesel prices. CME FedWatch data indicated that market-implied probabilities of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve interest-rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting rose to 70%, up from 62% prior to the release. Non-yielding bullion weakened as short-term yields repriced higher, while the U.S. Treasury's announcement of up to $6 billion in bond buybacks fell short of trader expectations for larger debt absorption. 7 12

The next confirmation point is Friday morning's Consumer Price Index print, which provides the final inflation benchmark prior to the Federal Reserve's policy decision.

Soybeans: China and unknown flash sales absorb harvest

November CBOT soybeans rose 1.72%, advancing from 1,309.75¢ to settle at 1,332.25¢ per bushel. The contract traded in an upward channel between 1,304.00¢ and 1,333.50¢, with Thursday trading volume reaching 151.47K contracts, 117% of the 65-day average. 3

Substantial export demand absorbed seasonal hedge selling. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service disclosed consecutive private export sales for the 2026/2027 marketing year. On September 4, private exporters booked 250,600 metric tons to unknown destinations. On September 10, FAS announced an additional sale of 272,000 metric tons to China alongside 206,500 metric tons to unknown destinations, bringing total flash sales over the five sessions to 729,100 metric tons. 13 14

Crop development data reflected steady field conditions. USDA NASS's weekly Crop Progress report for the week ending September 6 rated 58% of the U.S. soybean crop in good-to-excellent condition, unchanged from the prior week. Approximately 26% of soybean acreage was dropping leaves, running ahead of the 2021–2025 average of 20% and signaling an early harvest window in the central Corn Belt. 15

The next confirmation point is whether export bookings persist following the September WASDE release on Friday, September 11.

Corn: early harvest begins against steady feed and fuel floor

December CBOT corn declined 0.56%, easing from 536.75¢ to settle at 533.75¢ per bushel. Prices fluctuated across a range of 526.50¢ to 544.75¢, finishing near the middle of the weekly band on volume of 224.97K contracts. 4

Seasonal harvest pressure weighed on new-crop prices. USDA NASS reported that 5% of national corn acreage was harvested by September 6, matching historical averages, with harvest activity concentrated in Texas at 69%, North Carolina at 38%, and Tennessee at 30%. Mature corn reached 25%, compared with the five-year average of 23%, and 76% of acreage reached the dented stage. Good-to-excellent crop ratings slipped one percentage point to 56%, down from 57% the previous week and well below the year-ago rating of 68%. 15

Downside movement remained bounded by domestic industrial consumption and rising petroleum prices. Strong ethanol grind margins supported regional cash basis across Midwest processing hubs, preventing the December contract from breaching the psychological 525¢ support level.

The next confirmation point is the USDA September Crop Production and WASDE report on Friday, which updates nationwide corn yield and production estimates.

Cross-market read

Crude oil led all commodities: Physical transit risks in the Strait of Hormuz and refinery attacks generated double-digit gains across WTI and Brent, decoupling energy from broader financial market sentiment.
Tariff expectations dictated copper pricing: COMEX copper's abrupt reversal from record highs demonstrated how regulatory delays can unwind speculative arbitrage premiums, even within tight global physical markets.
Interest-rate repricing pressured precious metals: August payroll gains and a 4.2% jump in monthly wholesale energy prices raised September Fed rate-hike expectations to 70%, restraining gold despite geopolitical tensions.
Grains diverged on export flows: Flash export buying from China propelled soybeans higher, whereas seasonal combining and harvest deliveries kept corn capped.

The key catalysts for the coming week include Friday's U.S. Consumer Price Index print, the September USDA WASDE balance sheets, and daily tanker passage tallies through the Strait of Hormuz.