HPMOR 第4章｜有效市场假说（中英对照）
哈利在古灵阁用金银比、铸币税和费米估算盘点波特家金库，又为书箱与莫克皮袋展开谈判；本篇为第4章完整中英逐段对照。
"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
世界征服这个说法实在难听。我更喜欢把它叫作优化世界。
Heaps of gold Galleons. Stacks of silver Sickles. Piles of bronze Knuts.
成堆的金加隆。一摞摞银西可。一堆堆铜纳特。
Harry stood there, and stared with his mouth open at the family vault. He had so many questions he didn't know where to start.
哈利站在那里，张着嘴盯着家族金库。他的问题太多，甚至不知道该从哪里问起。
From just outside the door of the vault, Professor McGonagall watched him, seeming to lean casually against the wall, but her eyes intent. Well, that made sense. Being plopped in front of a giant heap of gold coins was a test of character so pure it was archetypal.
麦格教授站在金库门外，像是漫不经心地靠着墙，双眼却专注地盯着哈利。嗯，这倒说得通。把一个人直接放到一大堆金币面前，确实是纯粹得近乎典型的品格考验。
"Are these coins the pure metal?" Harry said finally.
「这些硬币是用纯金属铸的吗？」哈利终于问道。
"What?" hissed the goblin Griphook, who was waiting near the door. "Are you questioning the integrity of Gringotts, Mr. Potter-Evans-Verres?"
「什么？」守在门边的妖精拉环嘶声说道，「你是在质疑古灵阁的诚信吗，波特-埃文斯-维雷斯先生？」
"No," said Harry absently, "not at all, sorry if that came out wrong, sir. I just have no idea at all how your financial system works. I'm asking if Galleons in general are made of pure gold."
「没有，」哈利心不在焉地说，「完全没有。如果我刚才说得不对，先生，请你原谅。我只是完全不了解你们的金融体系。我是想问，加隆一般都是用纯金铸的吗？」
"Of course," said Griphook.
「当然。」拉环说。
"And can anyone coin them, or are they issued by a monopoly that thereby collects seigniorage?"
「那加隆可以由任何人铸造吗？还是由某个垄断机构发行，并借此收取铸币税？」
"What?" said Professor McGonagall.
「什么？」麦格教授问道。
Griphook grinned, showing sharp teeth. "Only a fool would trust any but goblin coin!"
拉环咧嘴一笑，露出尖利的牙齿。「只有傻瓜才会信任妖精铸币以外的任何钱！」
"In other words," Harry said, "the coins aren't supposed to be worth any more than the metal making them up?"
「换句话说，」哈利说，「这些硬币的价值不该高于铸造它们所用的金属价值，对吧？」
Griphook stared at Harry. Professor McGonagall looked bemused.
拉环盯着哈利。麦格教授露出困惑又觉得好笑的神情。
"I mean, suppose I came in here with a ton of silver. Could I get a ton of Sickles made from it?"
「我是说，假设我带一吨银子进来。你们能不能用它铸出一吨西可？」
"For a fee, Mr. Potter-Evans-Verres." The goblin watched him with glittering eyes. "For a certain fee. Where would you find a ton of silver, I wonder?"
「收取费用就可以，波特-埃文斯-维雷斯先生。」妖精的眼睛闪闪发亮。「当然要收一笔费用。可是，我很好奇，你要从哪里找来一吨银子？」
"I was speaking hypothetically," Harry said. For now, at any rate. "So... how much would you charge in fees, as a fraction of the whole weight?"
「我只是打个比方，」哈利说。至少目前只是这样。「那么……你们会收多少费用？按总重量的比例算呢？」
Griphook's eyes were intent. "I would have to consult my superiors..."
拉环的目光专注起来。「我得去请示上级……」
"Give me a wild guess. I won't hold Gringotts to it."
「你就随便猜一个吧。我不会拿这个答案要求古灵阁兑现。」
"A twentieth part of the metal would well pay for the coining."
「金属的二十分之一，足够支付铸币费了。」
Harry nodded. "Thank you very much, Mr. Griphook."
哈利点了点头。「非常感谢你，拉环先生。」
So not only is the wizarding economy almost completely decoupled from the Muggle economy, no one here has ever heard of arbitrage. The larger Muggle economy had a fluctuating trading range of gold to silver, so every time the Muggle gold-to-silver ratio got more than 5% away from the weight of seventeen Sickles to one Galleon, either gold or silver should have drained from the wizarding economy until it became impossible to maintain the exchange rate. Bring in a ton of silver, change to Sickles (and pay 5%), change the Sickles for Galleons, take the gold to the Muggle world, exchange it for more silver than you started with, and repeat.
_这么说来，不只是巫师经济和麻瓜经济几乎完全脱节；这里的人还从来没听说过套利。_麻瓜世界的金银比会在一定范围内波动，所以每当麻瓜世界的金银比偏离「十七枚西可的重量等于一枚加隆」超过百分之五，金或银就应该从巫师经济中流出去，直到这个汇率再也维持不住为止。带一吨银进来，把银铸成西可（支付百分之五的费用），再用西可换成加隆，把金带回麻瓜世界，换回比最初更多的银，然后重复这个过程。
Wasn't the Muggle gold to silver ratio somewhere around fifty to one? Harry didn't think it was seventeen, anyway. And it looked like the silver coins were actually smaller than the gold coins.
麻瓜世界的金银比是不是在五十比一左右？哈利记得它反正不是十七比一。而且，那些银币看起来居然比金币还小。
Then again, Harry was standing in a bank that literally stored your money in vaults full of gold coins guarded by dragons, where you had to go in and take coins out of your vault whenever you wanted to spend money. The finer points of arbitraging away market inefficiencies might well be lost on them. He'd been tempted to make snide remarks about the crudity of their financial system...
不过话说回来，哈利现在站的可是这样一家银行：他们真的把你的钱存进堆满金币、由巨龙看守的金库里；每次你想花钱，都得亲自进金库取硬币。用套利把市场里的价差抹平，这类精细门道大概不在他们的考虑范围内。他本来想讥讽几句他们那套粗糙的金融体系……
But the sad thing is, their way is probably better.
但可悲的是，他们那套办法可能更好。
On the other hand, one competent hedge fundie could probably own the whole wizarding world within a week. Harry filed away this notion in case he ever ran out of money, or had a week free.
另一方面，一个能干的对冲基金从业者大概一周内就能把整个巫师世界买下来。哈利把这个念头记了下来，以备自己哪天没钱可用，或者刚好空出一周时间。
Meanwhile, the giant heaps of gold coins within the Potter vault ought to suit his near-term requirements.
与此同时，波特家金库里那一大堆金币，应该足够满足他近期的需要了。
Harry stumped forward, and began picking up gold coins with one hand and dumping them into the other.
哈利大步走上前，开始一只手捡起金币，再倒进另一只手里。
When he had reached twenty, Professor McGonagall coughed. "I think that will be more than enough to pay for your school supplies, Mr. Potter."
他数到二十时，麦格教授咳嗽了一声。「我想，这已经足够支付你的学习用品了，波特先生。」
"Hm?" Harry said, his mind elsewhere. "Hold on, I'm doing a Fermi calculation."
「嗯？」哈利心思已经飘到别处。「等等，我在做费米估算。」
"A what? " said Professor McGonagall, sounding somewhat alarmed.
「什、什么？」麦格教授问，听起来有些不安。
"It's a mathematical thing. Named after Enrico Fermi. A way of getting rough numbers quickly in your head..."
「一种数学方法。以恩里科·费米的名字命名。就是在脑子里快速算出粗略数字……」
Twenty gold Galleons weighed a tenth of a kilogram, maybe? And gold was, what, ten thousand British pounds a kilogram? So a Galleon would be worth about fifty pounds... The mounds of gold coins looked to be about sixty coins high and twenty coins wide in either dimension of the base, and a mound was pyramidal, so it would be around one-third of the cube. Eight thousand Galleons per mound, roughly, and there were around five mounds of that size, so forty thousand Galleons or 2 million pounds sterling.
二十枚金加隆大概重零点一千克？黄金的价格大概是每千克一万英镑？那么一枚加隆大约值五十英镑……那些金币堆看起来大约有六十枚硬币高，底面每个方向大约有二十枚硬币宽；而且金币堆是金字塔形的，所以体积大约是同样边长立方体的三分之一。这样算下来，每堆大约有八千枚加隆；这样的金币堆大约有五堆，也就是四万枚加隆，约合两百万英镑。
Not bad. Harry smiled with a certain grim satisfaction. It was too bad that he was right in the middle of discovering the amazing new world of magic, and couldn't take time out to explore the amazing new world of being rich, which a quick Fermi estimate said was roughly a billion times less interesting.
不错。哈利露出带着几分阴沉满足感的笑容。可惜他正在探索神奇的新魔法世界，没空抽身去探索「有钱」这个神奇的新世界；快速做出的费米估算告诉他，后一个世界大概无聊十亿倍。
Still, that's the last time I ever mow a lawn for one lousy pound.
不过，这辈子我最后一次为了一英镑去割草了。
Harry wheeled from the giant heap of money. "Pardon me for asking, Professor McGonagall, but I understand that my parents were in their twenties when they died. Is this a usual amount of money for a young couple to have in their vault, in the wizarding world?" If it was, a cup of tea probably cost five thousand pounds. Rule one of economics: you can't eat money.
哈利转身离开那堆巨额财富。「冒昧问一句，麦格教授，我知道我的父母去世时才二十多岁。在巫师世界里，一对年轻夫妻的金库里有这么多钱，是很常见的事吗？」要是很常见，那一杯茶大概就得卖五千英镑。经济学第一定律：钱不能吃。
Professor McGonagall shook her head. "Your father was the last heir of an old family, Mr. Potter. It's also possible..." The witch hesitated. "Some of this money may be from bounties placed on You-Know-Who, payable to his ki- ah, to whoever might defeat him. Or those bounties might not have been collected yet. I am not sure."
麦格教授摇了摇头。「你的父亲是一个古老家族的最后继承人，波特先生。还有一种可能……」女巫迟疑了。「这笔钱里有一部分，可能来自针对伏地魔的悬赏——悬赏原本是付给杀死——呃，付给击败他的人的。也可能那些悬赏至今还没有人领取。我不确定。」
"Interesting..." Harry said slowly. "So some of this really is, in a sense, mine. That is, earned by me. Sort of. Possibly. Even if I don't remember the occasion." Harry's fingers tapped against his trouser-leg. "That makes me feel less guilty about spending a very tiny fraction of it! Don't panic, Professor McGonagall! "
「有意思……」哈利慢慢说。「所以，这里面确实有一部分，从某种意义上说是我的。也就是说，是我挣来的。算是吧。可能吧，就算我完全不记得自己什么时候挣过。」哈利的手指敲着裤腿。「这样一来，我花掉其中_非常非常小_的一部分，心里就没那么过意不去了！麦格教授，你别紧张！」
"Mr. Potter! You are a minor, and as such, you will only be allowed to make reasonable withdrawals from -"
「波特先生！你还是未成年人，因此只能从中取出_合理_的金额——」
"I am all about reasonable! I am totally on board with fiscal prudence and impulse control! But I did see some things on the way here which would constitute sensible, grown-up purchases..."
「我一向_非常_讲道理！我完全支持财政审慎和控制冲动！不过，我在路上确实看到了一些东西，买下来绝对算得上_明智、成熟_——」
Harry locked gazes with Professor McGonagall, engaging in a silent staring contest.
哈利和麦格教授四目相对，开始了一场无声的瞪眼比赛。
"Like what?" Professor McGonagall said finally.
「比如？」麦格教授终于问道。
"Trunks whose insides hold more than their outsides?"
「内部空间比外部还大的箱子？」
Professor McGonagall's face grew stern. "Those are very expensive, Mr. Potter!"
麦格教授的神情严肃起来。「那种箱子_非常_贵，波特先生！」
"Yes, but -" Harry pleaded. "I'm sure that when I'm an adult I'll want one. And I can afford one. Logically, it would make just as much sense to buy it now instead of later, and get the use of it right away. It's the same money either way, right? I mean, I would want a good one, with lots of room inside, good enough that I wouldn't have to just get a better one later..." Harry trailed off hopefully.
「可是——」哈利恳求道，「我敢肯定，等我长大以后，我还是会想要一个。而且我现在买得起。按道理说，现在买和以后买花的钱一样，那为什么不现在就买，立刻开始享用呢？反正钱都是一样多，对吧？我是说，我当然会想买个好的，里面空间_足够大_，这样以后就不用再换更好的……」哈利满怀希望地把话尾拖长。
Professor McGonagall's gaze didn't waver. "And just what would you keep in a trunk like that, Mr. Potter -"
麦格教授的目光没有丝毫动摇。「那你准备在这么大的箱子里_放_什么，波特先生——」
"Books."
「书。」
"Of course," sighed Professor McGonagall.
「当然。」麦格教授叹了口气。
"You should have told me much earlier that sort of magic item existed! And that I could afford one! Now my father and I are going to have to spend the next two days frantically hitting up all the secondhand bookshops for old textbooks, so I can have a decent science library with me at Hogwarts - and maybe a small science fiction collection, if I can assemble something decent out of the bargain bins. Or better yet, I'll make the deal a little sweeter for you, okay? Just let me buy -"
「你们早就该告诉我有这种魔法道具存在，而且我还买得起！现在，我和爸爸得花接下来两天时间_疯狂_扫荡所有二手书店，好让我能带着一套像样的科学藏书去霍格沃茨——如果能从打折书堆里凑出一套像样的科幻小说收藏，或许也行。或者更好，我把条件开得再优惠一点，怎么样？就让我买——」
"Mr. Potter! You think you can bribe me?"
「波特先生！ 你以为你能_贿赂_我？」
"What? No! Not like that! I'm saying, Hogwarts can keep some of the books I bring, if you think that any of them would make good additions to the library. I'm going to be getting them cheap, and I just want to have them around somewhere or other. It's okay to bribe people with books, right? That's a -"
「什么？不！ 不是那个意思！我是说，如果你觉得我带来的书里有些适合补充图书馆，霍格沃茨可以留下几本。我买这些书很便宜，只是想让它们在某个地方派上用场。用_书_贿赂人总没问题吧？这可是——」
"Family tradition."
「家族传统。」
"Yes, exactly."
「没错，就是这个。」
Professor McGonagall's body seemed to slump, the shoulders lowering within her black robes. "I cannot deny the sense of your words, though I much wish I could. I will allow you to withdraw an additional hundred Galleons, Mr. Potter." She sighed again. "I know that I shall regret this, and I am doing it anyway."
麦格教授的身体仿佛垮了下来，肩膀在黑袍里往下沉。「我没法否认你这话有道理，虽然我非常希望自己能否认。你可以再取一百枚加隆，波特先生。」她又叹了口气。「我知道自己会后悔，可我还是这么做了。」
"That's the spirit! And does a 'mokeskin pouch' do what I think it does?"
「这就对了！对了，『莫克皮袋』是不是有我想的那种功能？」
"It can't do as much as a trunk," the witch said with visible reluctance, "but... a mokeskin pouch with a Retrieval Charm and Undetectable Extension Charm can hold a number of items until they are called forth by the one who emplaced them -"
「它的容量比箱子小，」女巫明显不太情愿地说，「可是，一个莫克皮袋如果加上取物咒和无痕伸展咒，就能存放不少东西；等到需要时，放入这些东西的人可以把它们召回来——」
"Yes! I definitely need one of those too! It would be like the super beltpack of ultimate awesomeness! Batman's utility belt of holding! Never mind my swiss army knife, I could carry a whole tool set in there! Or books! I could have the top three books I was reading on me at all times, and just pull one out anywhere! I'll never have to waste another minute of my life! What do you say, Professor McGonagall? It's for the sake of children's reading, the best of all possible causes."
「太好了！我绝对需要一个！它就像终极万能腰包！蝙蝠侠的储物工具腰带！瑞士军刀算什么，我可以把整套工具都装在里面！或者装书！我随身带着正在看的三本书，想在哪里拿出哪本就拿哪本！以后再也不用浪费生命中的哪怕一分钟了！您觉得怎么样，麦格教授？这是为了儿童阅读，是一切最美好的事业。」
"...I suppose you may add another ten Galleons."
「……我想，你可以再加十枚加隆。」
Griphook was favouring Harry with a gaze of frank respect, possibly even outright admiration.
拉环看着哈利，目光里带着毫不掩饰的尊重，甚至可能已经到了钦佩的程度。
"And a little spending money, like you mentioned earlier. I think I can remember seeing one or two other things I might want to store in that pouch."
「还有一点零花钱，就像你刚才提到的那样。我想起来了，刚才路上似乎还看到了一两样想放进那个袋子的东西。」
"Don't push it, Mr. Potter."
「别得寸进尺，波特先生。」
"But oh, Professor McGonagall, why rain on my parade? Surely this is a happy day, when I discover all things wizarding for the first time! Why act the part of the grumpy grownup when instead you could smile and remember your own innocent childhood, watching the look of delight upon my young face as I buy a few toys using an insignificant fraction of the wealth that I earned by defeating the most terrible wizard Britain has ever known, not that I'm accusing you of being ungrateful or anything, but still, what are a few toys compared to that?"
「可是，麦格教授，您为什么要给大家泼冷水呢？今天可是个_快乐_的日子，我第一次发现巫师世界的一切！您何必非要摆出一个爱发脾气的大人样子？您本来可以笑一笑，想起自己无忧无虑的童年，看着我这个小孩子买玩具时满脸喜悦。那些玩具只花了我靠打败英国有史以来最可怕的巫师挣来的财富中微不足道的一小部分——我可没说您不知感恩，但话说回来，这点玩具又算得了什么呢？」
"You," growled Professor McGonagall. There was a look on her face so fearsome and terrible that Harry squeaked and stepped back, knocking over a pile of gold coins with a great jingling noise and sprawling backwards into a heap of money. Griphook sighed and put a palm over his face. "I would be doing a great service to wizarding Britain, Mr. Potter, if I locked you in this vault and left you here."
「你——」麦格教授低声吼道。她脸上的神情恐怖得吓人，哈利惊叫一声，向后退去，撞翻了一堆金币，叮叮当当地仰面摔进了钱堆里。拉环叹了口气，用手掌捂住脸。「波特先生，如果我把你锁在这个金库里不管，我就是在为英国巫师界做一件大好事。」
And they left without any more trouble.
他们离开时，没再遇到任何麻烦。
梗与典故
- 「费米估算」 费米估算不是为了得到精确答案，而是把一个难以直接测量的大数拆成几个可以凭常识估出的量，再把它们乘起来。哈利先估二十枚加隆的重量和金价，再估金币堆的尺寸、形状和数量，最后得出四万枚加隆、约两百万英镑的数量级。费米问题通常就这样处理「无法立刻查表，但可以合理猜测」的数量。5
- 金库里的套利机会 哈利说一个能干的对冲基金从业者一周内就能买下整个巫师世界，是把金融市场里「发现并吃掉价差」的思路夸张到巫师社会。这个判断属于人物的玩笑和推演，不能当成作者对巫师经济规模的正式估值；章内金价、金币重量和总金额也都是哈利的粗略估算。
- 「经济学第一定律：钱不能吃」 这不是正式的经济学定律，而是哈利用一句近乎废话的方式提醒自己：金库里的财富只有换成食物、书或服务，才能改善生活。笑点来自他刚刚算出两百万英镑，转头就用「钱不能吃」给自己的兴奋踩刹车。
- 「家族传统」与用书行贿 哈利想用买来的书给霍格沃茨图书馆扩充藏书，麦格教授却听出了另一层意思：他正在努力把「用礼物说服大人」包装成家里一贯的做法。麦格用「家族传统」接住这句话，既承认波特家的确可能这样做，也暗示她已经看穿了哈利的谈判。
Fuentes de referencia
- 1HPMOR 第4章英文原文
hpmor.com
- 2HPMOR 作品与译本说明
hpmor.com
- 3HPMOR 作者的科学说明
hpmor.com
- 4Seigniorage
en.wikipedia.org
- 5Fermi problem
en.wikipedia.org
- 6Moke
harrypotter.fandom.com
- 7Mokeskin pouch
harrypotter.fandom.com
- 8Extension Charm
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