July 19 LEGO Radar: Talking Sorting Hat tops the cleanest July retirement discounts
Talking Sorting Hat leads the July 31 retirement-window screen at a 41.3% reference discount; Lunar Outpost shows the strongest forecast but the thinnest evidence, so collectors should use ceilings rather than chase unverified offers.
The July 12–19 scan found no usable timestamped listings on eBay, Mercari, Vinted, Depop, or BrickLink. This week’s radar is therefore a price-reference screen, not a claim that any set below is currently available at the quoted number. The figures are BrickRanker six-month averages, compared with original retail price; use them as ceilings for saved searches and offers.
The best bargain signal is 76429 Talking Sorting Hat at 41.3% below MSRP. The more interesting scarcity case is 21042 Statue of Liberty, an older Architecture set with 309 recorded sales and a July 31, 2026 estimated retirement date. 42211 Lunar Outpost has the strongest forecast headline, but only one recorded sale makes that signal too thin to trust on its own. 1 2 3
Quick ranking
| Rank | Set | Reference screen | Listing and condition status | First action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 76429 Talking Sorting Hat | $58.71 vs. $99.99 MSRP; −41.3%; +27.48% two-year forecast; 36 sales; high confidence. 1 | No verified timestamped listing; condition and seller signals unavailable. | Start near $59 only for a complete, working copy; sealed is preferable. |
| 2 | 21042 Statue of Liberty | $78.76 vs. $119.99 MSRP; −34.4%; +26.93% forecast; 309 sales; high confidence. 2 | No verified timestamped listing; condition and seller signals unavailable. | Use the high-$70s as a ceiling for clean complete copies, not a target for random loose builds. |
| 3 | 42211 Lunar Outpost | $62.12 vs. $99.99 MSRP; −37.9%; +43.04% forecast; one sale; low confidence. 3 | No verified timestamped listing; condition and seller signals unavailable. | Watch only. Do not pay against the forecast until more sales establish a market. |
| 4 | 31152 Space Astronaut | $40.28 vs. $54.99 MSRP; −26.7%; +20.48% forecast; 19 sales; medium confidence. 4 | No verified timestamped listing; condition and seller signals unavailable. | Look below $35 for a sealed or unusually clean copy; otherwise the upside is too modest. |
| 5 | 31157 Exotic Peacock | $20.79 vs. $19.99 MSRP; +4.0%; +28.74% forecast, but a −6.30% to +80.14% range; 56 sales. 5 | No verified timestamped listing; condition and seller signals unavailable. | Skip at the current reference value. Revisit only below roughly $16–17. |
What changed this week
This is a July 31 retirement-window scan, not a live-offer leaderboard. BrickRanker currently marks the five sets above as active with estimated retirement on July 31, 2026; Brickset’s July retirement catalog also places sets from this wave, including Dune Atreides Royal Ornithopter and Optimus Prime, on that exit date. 6 7
Because no marketplace detail page supplied a verifiable listing timestamp during the July 12–19 window, there is no honest way to report a live eBay, Mercari, Vinted, Depop, or BrickLink price, seller rating, or item condition for these picks. A saved search that matches one of the ceilings above is useful; a screenshot or search snippet that does not expose a listing date is not enough to call it a weekly deal.
The five reference pages also have different data ages. BrickRanker labels the Sorting Hat, Statue of Liberty, and Space Astronaut pages as updated June 26; Exotic Peacock is labeled May 26; Lunar Outpost is labeled January 26. That makes Lunar Outpost the most speculative entry even before its one-sale sample is considered. 1 2 3 4 5
Ranked picks
1. 76429 Talking Sorting Hat
Price screen: BrickRanker lists the Harry Potter set at $58.71 against a $99.99 MSRP, a 41.3% discount. It has 561 pieces, one exclusive minifigure, 36 recorded sales, and a +27.48% two-year forecast. The forecast range is unusually wide, from −4.56% to +53.27%, so the discount is the reliable part of the case; the appreciation estimate is not. 1
Why it ranks first: This is the cleanest bargain screen in the group. The set is close to its estimated retirement date, carries a distinctive Harry Potter display concept, and still has enough sales depth to make the reference price more useful than Lunar Outpost’s. It is not a verified live deal, but it is the first saved search I would build.
Listing status: No timestamped listing cleared verification this week. There is no defensible condition label, seller score, or platform-specific price to report.
Authentication and completeness check: The set’s single exclusive Harry Potter minifigure contributes $16.13 to BrickRanker’s value breakdown. For an open copy, ask for a straight-on photo of the figure’s face, torso, legs, hat, and accessories. Because this is a talking set, ask for a short audio demonstration and a photo of the battery compartment. A seller who shows only the outer box, or says “complete” without showing the electronics and minifigure, is offering too little evidence for a collector-grade price. 1
2. 21042 Statue of Liberty
Price screen: BrickRanker lists the Architecture set at $78.76 against a $119.99 MSRP, a 34.4% discount. It has 1,685 pieces, no minifigures, 309 recorded sales, and a +26.93% two-year forecast with a much tighter 24.45% to 30.06% range. 2
Why it ranks second: The raw discount is smaller than the Sorting Hat’s, but the scarcity case is stronger. This set was released in 2018, has the deepest sales history in this week’s pool, and is approaching the same estimated July 31 retirement date. The no-minifigure profile also removes a common source of price leakage in used listings.
Listing status: No timestamped listing cleared verification this week. Treat the BrickRanker average as a price ceiling, not as an offer you can buy today.
Authentication and completeness check: The main risk is a generic green Architecture model being presented as 21042. Ask for a photo of the box or instruction cover showing set number 21042, plus wide shots of the complete model and the instruction booklet. For loose lots, request an inventory or parts-spread photo before paying near the high-$70s. Faded or heavily dusty tan and green elements should push the price down even if the model is structurally complete.
3. 42211 Lunar Outpost
Price screen: BrickRanker lists the Technic set at $62.12 against a $99.99 MSRP, a 37.9% discount. Its two-year forecast is the strongest on the page at +43.04%, with a 37.02% to 54.36% range. The problem is the evidence base: BrickRanker records only one sale and assigns the page low confidence. 3
Why it ranks third: The headline is attractive, but this is a watch rather than a buy call. A single recorded sale can make both the current average and the forecast look more precise than they are. Its 1,080 pieces and estimated July 31 retirement make it worth monitoring, not worth chasing.
Listing status: No timestamped listing cleared verification this week. No condition, seller, or platform signal is available.
Authentication and completeness check: Ask for a complete assembled model, the instructions, and clear views of the wheels, articulated mechanisms, and distinctive Technic panels. Avoid a parts bin advertised from one distant photo. Until more sales appear, only a sealed or demonstrably complete copy at a material discount deserves attention.
4. 31152 Space Astronaut
Price screen: BrickRanker lists the Creator 3-in-1 set at $40.28 against a $54.99 MSRP, a 26.7% discount. It has 647 pieces, no minifigures, 19 recorded sales, and a +20.48% two-year forecast. The range runs from −6.30% to +34.66%, which leaves much less room for a bad condition purchase. 4
Why it ranks fourth: The entry price is approachable and the retirement date is close, but the forecast is less convincing than the top three. This is a small speculative buy only when the seller’s photos make completeness obvious.
Listing status: No timestamped listing cleared verification this week. There is no verified platform or condition to attach to the $40.28 reference value.
Authentication and completeness check: Because it is a 3-in-1 Creator set, ask whether the box and instructions are present and whether the major white astronaut parts are original to the set. A photo of only one build does not prove that the other model-specific elements are present. Use the low-to-mid-$30s as the negotiating zone for opened copies.
5. 31157 Exotic Peacock
Price screen: BrickRanker lists the Creator 3-in-1 set at $20.79, already 4.0% above its $19.99 MSRP. The page reports 56 sales and a +28.74% two-year forecast, but the forecast range is extremely wide at −6.30% to +80.14%. 5
Why it ranks fifth: This is a useful “do not chase the retirement label” example. A set can have a positive forecast and still be a poor purchase when the reference value is already above retail and the forecast band is broad. The peacock belongs on a saved search, not in a collector’s urgent-buy queue.
Listing status: No timestamped listing cleared verification this week. There is no seller or condition evidence to justify paying above MSRP.
Authentication and completeness check: For an opened copy, request photos of the bright lime and specialty elements, the instruction materials, and the box number 31157 if the seller claims a complete original set. Generic loose Creator pieces should be priced as parts unless the seller can show the peacock build and the remaining 3-in-1 inventory clearly.
Watchlist and exclusions
Dune Atreides Royal Ornithopter and NASA Mars Perseverance Rover remain useful comparators, not fresh listing picks. They led or nearly led the previous radar, and this week’s marketplace pass did not produce a newly verified listing that would justify repeating either as a new live-offer story. The right move is to keep their saved-search ceilings from last week and wait for a timestamped listing with clear condition evidence.
Do not let the July 31 date do all the selling. The BrickRanker tracker shows the five ranked sets as still active, and Brickset’s retirement catalog lists July 31 as the exit date for multiple sets in the same wave. Retirement is a timing signal; it is not proof of scarcity, authenticity, or a fair marketplace price. 6 7
Action order
- Save searches for 76429 around $59 and 21042 around $79, with sealed or complete condition filters where the platform supports them.
- Keep 42211 on watch rather than buying against a one-sale forecast.
- Treat 31152 as a sub-$35 opportunity and 31157 as a skip unless it falls clearly below retail.
- For any marketplace hit, verify the listing date, seller history, box or instruction evidence, and a complete-parts photo before comparing it with these reference prices.
The practical conclusion is narrow but useful: this week produced no verified live bargain, but it did produce a clear search order. Start with the Sorting Hat for discount, Statue of Liberty for older-set scarcity, and Lunar Outpost only if a real listing appears far below its uncertain reference value.
Fuentes de referencia
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