BTG: three filters at multi-source consensus, $362M free cash flow in a single quarter — Pass #31
22/6/2026 · 8:24

BTG: three filters at multi-source consensus, $362M free cash flow in a single quarter — Pass #31

B2Gold (BTG) passes all four filters: $5.68B cap, +86.94% TTM revenue, PEG 0.08, $1.26B OCF

B2Gold Corp (NYSE: BTG) — Pass #31 in the daily small-cap screen. This is the third consecutive mining pick in the series — AUGO (gold, Pass #30, Jun 21) and ASM (silver, Pass #29, Jun 20) came immediately before. The repetition is a function of the screener, not editorial preference: the four hard filters are being applied consistently, and right now gold and silver miners are the sector clearing all of them simultaneously. BTG belongs here on its own terms, not AUGO's or ASM's. It is an established mid-tier producer with four operating mines across four countries, $1.26 billion in TTM operating cash flow, an active dividend, and a buyback already $98 million deployed this year. The profile is fundamentally different from an exploration-stage junior: BTG has real production, real free cash flow, and real capital returns. What it also has is a geopolitical overhang — roughly half of production comes from a mine in Mali — and a stock that has sat 31% below its 52-week high while gold trades near historic peaks. All four hard filters confirmed.

Hard filter scorecard

FilterThresholdActualSourcesVerdict
Market cap< $10B$5.68–5.74BStockAnalysis, Finviz, Yahoo Finance✅ Pass
TTM revenue growth> 30%+86.94%StockAnalysis, Finviz, Yahoo Finance, Macrotrends✅ Pass
PEG ratio< 1.00.08 (Finviz)Finviz primary; SA / Yahoo show n/a✅ Pass
Operating cash flowPositive+$1.26B TTMStockAnalysis, Yahoo Finance✅ Pass
All four filters confirmed. 1 2 3
PEG derivation and single-source risk: Finviz reports PEG = 0.08, calculated as Finviz Forward P/E 3.39 ÷ 5-year EPS growth estimate of 44.11% = 0.0769. StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance both show PEG as n/a — standard for gold miners, where highly commodity-sensitive GAAP EPS makes the ratio methodologically unreliable on most aggregator platforms. Manual cross-checks produce consistent results: StockAnalysis Forward P/E 5.09 ÷ 3-year EPS growth 40.12% = 0.13; Yahoo Finance Forward P/E 5.50 ÷ analyst consensus long-term growth ≈ 0.16. All three derived PEGs sit well below 1.0, giving strong convergence on the pass verdict despite the single-source disclosure. The wide range on Forward P/E itself (3.39 Finviz vs. 5.09 SA vs. 5.50 Yahoo) reflects different forward EPS assumptions: Finviz uses a more aggressive $1.27/share estimate versus SA/Yahoo at $0.78–0.85. 1 2
TTM revenue construction: TTM revenue (12 months ending March 31, 2026) = $3.69B. Prior-year TTM revenue = approximately $1.97B. Growth = ($3.69B − $1.97B) / $1.97B = +86.94%. This is confirmed independently by StockAnalysis, Finviz, Yahoo Finance, and Macrotrends — four-source consensus removes any single-aggregator ambiguity. 4 5
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Business model

B2Gold Corp (TSX / NYSE American: BTG, headquartered in Vancouver, Canada) is a mid-tier gold producer with four operating mines across four countries and approximately 1.33 billion shares outstanding. The company was founded by former Bema Gold executives including founder and now-retired CEO Clive Johnson, who transitioned the president and CEO role to Mike Cinnamond — B2Gold's CFO since 2015 — effective June 4, 2026. 6
The four operating mines:
  • Fekola Complex (Mali, West Africa): The company's flagship asset, located in the Kayes region of western Mali. B2Gold holds 80% of the Fekola Mine and 65% of the adjacent Fekola Regional zone (State of Mali holds 20% and 35% respectively). The complex produced 117,450 oz in Q1 2026 at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $1,955/oz, and accounts for roughly half of total group production. FY2026 guidance for the Complex: 410,000–460,000 oz. 6
  • Goose Mine (Nunavut, Canada): A high-grade underground mine in the Back River Gold District, 100% owned by B2Gold, which achieved commercial production in October 2025. Q1 2026 production was 42,876 oz at a grade of 7.92 g/t and 93.5% recovery — well above plan. FY2026 guidance: 170,000–230,000 oz. A crushing circuit fire on April 16, 2026 will reduce Q2 output to 18,000–20,000 oz (from ~29,000), with full-year guidance maintained. 6 7
  • Masbate (Philippines): A 100%-owned open-pit mine that is the portfolio's lowest-cost operation, producing 52,908 oz in Q1 2026 at an AISC of $1,254/oz. FY2026 guidance: 170,000–190,000 oz.
  • Otjikoto (Namibia): A 100%-owned open-pit/underground mine that produced 24,529 oz in Q1 2026 at an AISC of $1,327/oz. Grade declined year-over-year (1.06 g/t vs. 1.96 g/t in Q1 2025). FY2026 guidance: 70,000–90,000 oz.
The consolidated FY2026 production guidance is 820,000–970,000 oz at a cash cost of $1,155–$1,280/oz and AISC of $2,400–$2,580/oz, assuming $5,000/oz gold. B2Gold also holds a 100%-owned development asset — Gramalote (Colombia) — with a July 2025 feasibility study showing 227,000 oz/year for the first five years at a life-of-mine AISC of $985/oz and an NPV of $941M at $2,500/oz gold ($1,716M at $3,300/oz gold), currently in permitting. 6

Financials and growth

Revenue: five consecutive quarters of growth, Q1 2026 up 118% year-over-year

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QuarterRevenueYoY growth
Q1 2025$532.1M+15.3%
Q2 2025$692.2M+40.5%
Q3 2025$782.95M+74.7%
Q4 2025$1,054M+110.9%
Q1 2026$1,159M+117.8%
TTM$3,688M+86.9%
Source: 4
The acceleration in revenue reflects two compounding factors: Goose Mine entering commercial production in October 2025 (adding a new high-grade production source to the base), and realized gold prices rising from $2,892/oz in Q1 2025 to $4,193/oz in Q1 2026. FY2025 full-year revenue was $3.061B (+60.95% vs. FY2024), versus FY2024 revenue of $1.902B. 5

Earnings: Q1 2026 adjusted EPS beats consensus by 67%

PeriodNet incomeDiluted EPSAdj. EPS
Q1 2025$0.04
Q2 2025$0.10
Q3 2025$0.01
Q4 2025$0.11$0.11
Q1 2026$200M (attr.)$0.14$0.19
TTM$544.26M$0.38
FY2025$401.91M$0.28
FY2024−$629.89M
Source: 4 6
Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.19 beat the analyst consensus of $0.11 by 67.7%. B2Gold's Q1 2026 press release stated: "Strong operating performance across all operations led to higher than expected gold production, lower than expected costs, and robust free cash flow in the first quarter of 2026." 6
The FY2024 net loss of −$629.89M requires context: it was driven primarily by $873 million in non-cash impairment charges related to the Fekola Complex write-down (a function of gold price assumptions at the time), not by operational deterioration. The TTM recovery to $544M net income reflects actual operating leverage as gold prices recovered and Goose Mine ramped into production.
Free cash flow in Q1 2026 alone was $362M, versus −$6.9M in Q1 2025. TTM operating cash flow reached $1.26B. 6
Analyst forward estimates: 11 analysts covering BTG. FY2026 EPS consensus: $0.69/share (range $0.43–$0.91), implying 81.6% growth over TTM EPS of $0.38. FY2027 EPS consensus: $1.19/share (range $0.90–$1.46), implying 72.5% further growth. FY2026 revenue consensus: $4.2B; FY2027: $5.34B. 8

Valuation

MetricBTGGold mining peers (selected)Source
Trailing P/E10.43–11.75×Newmont 17.50×, Agnico Eagle 26.29×, Barrick 17.85×, Kinross 18.25×, Eldorado 20.72×, Iamgold 16.28×1 9
Forward P/E3.39–5.50×Peer range ~12–16×1 2 3
EV/EBITDA2.53–2.89×Peer range ~8–12×1 2
P/S1.54–1.74×1
P/B1.53–1.59×1
P/OCF4.52×1
P/FCF13.02–13.17×1 2
PEG0.08 (Finviz) / 0.13–0.16 (cross-check)2
The trailing P/E of 10.43–11.75× already sits at roughly half the level of major gold miners (Barrick 17.85×, Newmont 17.50×). The forward P/E of 3.39–5.50× is the more analytically interesting figure: at the midpoint, the market is pricing BTG at approximately 4–5× its forward earnings while paying 18–26× for peers. The EV/EBITDA of 2.53–2.89× is the sharpest single-line statement of the discount — gold mining sector EBITDA multiples typically range from 8–12×. A note on the Yahoo Finance EV/EBITDA: Yahoo reports 4.27×, roughly 50% higher than the SA/Finviz figures, consistent with Yahoo using a different EBITDA period or definition (likely per S&P Global methodology). The gap is methodological, not an error; readers building DCF models should verify which EBITDA definition they are normalizing from.
The P/B of 1.53–1.59× is notably low for an operating gold miner, implying the market ascribes little premium to the company's assets above stated book value — another expression of the Mali discount.
The analyst consensus average 12-month price target is $6.55 (StockAnalysis, 13 analysts) to $6.98 (Finviz), representing 52–62% upside from the June 18 closing price of $4.30. Rating: unanimous Buy / Strong Buy (consensus 2.00 on a 1-to-5 scale). 1 2
Notable recent rating actions: CIBC raised its target to $6.50 (February 2026). 2 RBC Capital holds a more cautious position — Hold, $5.75 target — reflecting uncertainty through the CEO transition period. 2 Scotiabank maintained Sector Perform with a C$8.00 target (October 2025). 2

Balance sheet

MetricValueSource
Cash & equivalents$479.4M6
Total debt$519.9M (LT: $491.1M + current: $28.75M)10
Net debt−$40.5M (net cash)Calculated 10
Net Debt/EBITDA−0.02× (effectively zero)1
Debt/EBITDA0.26×1
Debt/Equity0.14×1
Total assets$5,965M10
Shareholders' equity$3,713M10
Current ratio1.19×1
Quick ratio0.49–0.59×1 2
Interest coverage29.69×1
Altman Z-Score2.961
OCF (TTM)$1.26B1 11
Post-quarter balance sheet context: After March 31, 2026, BTG fully repaid its $800 million revolving credit facility and received $325M in cash from the Fingold sale to Agnico Eagle (closed April 23, 2026). The RCF repayment leaves the full $800M available again. Net of NCIB spending ($98M through Q1), estimated post-quarter net cash is approximately $700M+. 6 12
The Altman Z-Score of 2.96 sits just below the 3.0 "safe zone" threshold (single-source: StockAnalysis; no independent verification found). Mining companies structurally score lower on the Z-Score due to high fixed asset bases. The interest coverage of 29.69× — earnings covering interest 30 times over — and the near-zero net debt are the more operationally meaningful financial stability signals. This is not a balance sheet under stress. 1
Total debt increased from $192M (FY2023) to $598M (FY2025) primarily to fund Goose Mine construction. Debt has since declined — TTM balance is $519.9M vs. the FY2025 peak — and is on a downward trajectory. 10

Growth catalysts

1. Goose Mine production ramp (Nunavut, Canada). Q1 2026 was Goose's second quarter after commercial production. The mine produced 42,876 oz at a grade of 7.92 g/t — among the highest-grade operating gold mines in North America. FY2026 guidance is 170,000–230,000 oz, with a medium-term target of 300,000 oz/year after planned capacity expansions. The crushing circuit fire trimmed Q2 production to 18,000–20,000 oz, but repairs are expected to complete in Q3 2026 coinciding with the first-phase upgrade (jaw crusher / ROM bin / apron feeder, targeting 3,200 tpd capacity; cost ~$11M). A second phase in H1 2027 — budgeted at $20–30M — would expand to 4,000 tpd. An optimization study for a potential SAG mill addition could push capacity to 6,000 tpd. 7 6
2. Fekola Regional exploitation permit (end-June 2026 deadline). The Fekola Regional zone (65% B2Gold / 35% Mali state) has a production contribution of 60,000–80,000 oz embedded in the FY2026 Fekola Complex guidance of 410,000–460,000 oz — but only if the exploitation permit is received by end of June 2026. This is a binary near-term catalyst. If the permit arrives, it validates the full-year guidance range. If it is delayed, the upper bound of Fekola Complex guidance comes down by 60,000–80,000 oz. 6
3. Fingold sale proceeds and NCIB buyback. B2Gold sold its 70% interest in Fingold Ventures (Finland exploration claims) to Agnico Eagle for $325M cash, closed April 23, 2026. Simultaneously, the two companies entered a Nunavut Collaboration Agreement covering arctic mine logistics, procurement, and HR — a non-monetary operational benefit. 12 The proceeds funded the RCF repayment and are being partly deployed into the NCIB: 20M shares repurchased for $98M YTD through Q1 2026, out of 132.7M shares (10% of public float) authorized through April 2, 2027. At $4.30/share, the remaining $634M+ NCIB authorization represents substantial potential buyback capacity against a $5.68B market cap. 6
4. Back River exploration resource upgrade. B2Gold's 2025 exploration program at the Back River Gold District drilled 28,599 meters across 140 holes, with highlight intercepts of 41.95 g/t over 13.70 meters at the Llama deposit (Goose Mine) and 6.65 g/t over 27.28 meters at the Nuvuyak deposit extending high-grade mineralization 150 meters north-northwest beyond the current mine plan. 13 The 2026 exploration budget is $46M ($24M Goose mine, $22M regional), with a target of upgrading significant Inferred resource to Indicated status. Nuvuyak's existing Inferred resource is 2.63Mt at 8.26 g/t (700,000 oz); Llama has an Indicated resource of 3.04Mt at 7.72 g/t (760,000 oz) plus an Inferred resource of 1.79Mt at 11.00 g/t (637,000 oz). 13
Back River Gold District properties map showing Goose Mine and regional exploration targets
Back River Gold District — Goose Mine plus four regional exploration targets that B2Gold is drilling in 2026 with a $46M budget. 13
5. Gramalote permitting (Colombia). B2Gold submitted its modified environmental impact study for Gramalote in March 2026. The permitting process is expected to take approximately 12 months from submission. At $4,800/oz gold, the $985/oz life-of-mine AISC on a 227,000 oz/year first-five-years operation represents compelling economics. The after-tax NPV was $941M at $2,500/oz gold; at current prices, the project-level economics are considerably wider. 6

Key risks

Risk #1 — Mali political instability (~50% of production). The Fekola Complex in Mali contributes roughly half of BTG's total production. Mali's security environment deteriorated materially in April 2026: coordinated JNIM (Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin) and Tuareg rebel attacks struck Bamako's airport and Kati on April 25, 2026, killing Defence Minister Sadio Camara. JNIM had declared an "economic jihad" campaign in September 2025, targeting supply routes rather than mine sites. 14 Fekola is located in the Kayes region of western Mali, geographically separated from the active conflict zones in central and northern Mali, and B2Gold confirmed operations continued unimpeded through Q1 2026. The geographic buffer is real but, as Discovery Alert's mining risk analysis put it, it is "an accident of geology and insurgent operational focus, not a product of governance or security policy." 14 Mali's 2023 mining code increased state ownership to 35% and removed tax exemptions. Royalties from Fekola at a $5,000/oz gold assumption run to approximately $410M/year. The government's fiscal dependence on mining revenue (the extractive sector represents ~41% of state budget income) provides a structural incentive to keep operations running — but it does not eliminate tail risk. Trigger to monitor: any disruption to Fekola access roads or supply lines from Bamako. 6
Risk #2 — Goose Mine fire and Q2 production gap. The crushing circuit fire on April 16, 2026 cut Q2 Goose production to 18,000–20,000 oz versus the prior forecast of ~29,000 oz — a reduction of roughly 10,000 oz. B2Gold stated: "The Company estimates that the impact of lower availability of crushed ore as a result of the fire will be limited to the second quarter of 2026, and that availability of crushed ore in the second half of 2026 will not change from previous estimates." 7 Initial repair cost was estimated at ~C$10M (April 19) / ~$7M (Q1 report). Mobile crushers are feeding ore as an interim measure. The repair is now expected to complete in Q3 2026 alongside first-phase crusher upgrades. Full-year guidance is maintained. The risk is that Q3 recovery comes in slower than planned, compressing the H2 catch-up. Trigger: Q2 preliminary production report (late July 2026) and Q3 post-fire throughput data.
Risk #3 — CEO transition uncertainty. Founder Clive Johnson retired as President, CEO, and Director effective June 4, 2026, after more than two decades building the company. Mike Cinnamond — CFO since 2015 — assumed the role and joined the Board of Directors. Johnson was named Chair Emeritus. 6 Cinnamond's decade-long CFO tenure suggests continuity of financial discipline, but the transition from a founder-led organization to a first-time CEO — occurring simultaneously with a mine fire, a major asset sale, and an accelerating NCIB — introduces execution risk that would not exist under a steady-state leadership environment. RBC Capital maintained a Hold rating with a $5.75 target specifically citing the transition period. 2
Risk #4 — Fekola Regional permit timing. The 60,000–80,000 oz contribution from Fekola Regional is embedded in the FY2026 guidance, conditional on the exploitation permit arriving by end of June 2026. If the Mali government delays the permit — not implausible given the deteriorating political environment — the upper bound of Fekola Complex guidance would drop by 60,000–80,000 oz. At a $4,500/oz gold price and an AISC of approximately $1,800/oz, that volume represents roughly $162–$216M in foregone pre-tax margin. The resolution window is now (end of June 2026). 6
Risk #5 — Insider selling and limited transaction data. Detailed insider transaction records for BTG are not available from standard free sources in granular form. MarketBeat reports aggregated insider activity; full transaction-level data would require Canadian SEDI filings. The absence of visible insider buying — during a period when the company itself is executing an aggressive NCIB — is worth tracking as a potential alignment signal.

Recent price action

MetricValueSource
Price (Jun 18, 2026 close)$4.302
Pre-market Jun 22$4.27 (−0.70%)1
52-week high$6.292
52-week low$3.312
Distance from 52-week high−31.6%Calculated
YTD performance−4.66%1
1-year performance+16.2–17.2%1 3
SMA20−2.90% below2
SMA50−7.75% below2
SMA200−9.63% below2
RSI (14-day)45.17 (neutral)2
Beta1.30 (StockAnalysis / Yahoo, 5Y monthly) / 0.67 (Finviz)1 2
Avg. daily volume21.96M (20-day, SA) / 28.89M (Finviz)1 2
Short interest55.66M shares (4.18% of outstanding)1
Days to cover2.251
BTG is currently trading below all three major moving averages (SMA20, SMA50, SMA200) with an RSI of 45.17 — neutral territory, not oversold. The stock is 31.6% below its 52-week high of $6.29 while the underlying gold price has remained elevated, a setup that implies either the market is discounting the Mali risk heavily or the price is lagging the fundamental improvement. Short interest declined from 62.68M shares the prior month to 55.66M — an 11.2% reduction month-over-month — suggesting short sellers are covering at current levels. 1
On beta: two sources (StockAnalysis, Yahoo Finance, 5-year monthly calculation) show 1.30, while Finviz shows 0.67. The 1.30 figure from two independent sources is the more reliable reference; the Finviz divergence likely reflects a different calculation period or frequency.
The $0.08 annualized dividend (yield 1.86%, payout ratio 21–26%) provides a modest income floor. The Q2 2026 dividend of $0.02/share was payable June 23, 2026 to shareholders of record June 10. 6 2

Analyst consensus

FirmAction / RatingPrice target
CIBC$6.50 (Feb 2026 raise)
ScotiabankSector PerformC$8.00 (Oct 2025 raise)
Raymond JamesOutperform (resumed Jun 30, 2025)$4.50 (now exceeded)
RBC CapitalHold (Sector Perform)$5.75 (Jun 2026)
BofA SecuritiesUnderperform (Jan 2025 downgrade)
Source: 2 1
13 analysts cover BTG with a consensus Buy rating (2.00 on a 1-to-5 scale). The average 12-month price target is $6.55 (StockAnalysis) to $6.98 (Finviz), representing 52–62% upside from $4.30. 1 2 The BofA Underperform from January 2025 predates Goose Mine's commercial production (October 2025) and the 118% Q1 2026 revenue growth — it is the oldest rating action in the coverage set and has not been updated per available data.

Insider and institutional ownership

MetricValueSource
Institutional ownership57.86% (Finviz) / 66.94% (Yahoo)3 2
Insider ownership6.06% (Finviz) / 0.42% (Yahoo)2 3
Shares outstanding~1.33B1
Float~1.25B1
The insider ownership discrepancy between Finviz (6.06%) and Yahoo (0.42%) is large. Finviz likely includes founding executives and long-term insiders in its calculation; Yahoo Finance's figure may reflect only SEC Form 4 filers on a recent snapshot. The true figure probably sits between the two; granular transaction data would require Canadian SEDI filings, which were not retrieved this cycle.
Top institutional holders (as of March 31, 2026): Van Eck Associates 95.37M shares (7.19%), Pale Fire Capital SE 69.74M (5.26%), Two Sigma Investments 43.06M (3.25%), Vanguard Capital Management 36.96M (2.79%), American Century Companies 34.98M (2.64%), Dimensional Fund Advisors 33.48M (2.52%), D.E. Shaw & Co. 28.24M (2.13%), Millennium Management 22.95M (1.73%), Goldman Sachs Group 22.70M (1.71%), Jane Street Group 20.98M (1.58%). 15
Van Eck (7.19%) is the GDX gold miners ETF operator, reflecting BTG's inclusion in systematic gold miner exposure products. Pale Fire Capital (5.26%) is a specialist European asset manager.

Upcoming catalysts

EventExpected timing
Fekola Regional exploitation permitEnd of June 2026 — binary catalyst
Q2 2026 preliminary production resultsLate July 2026
Q2 2026 earningsAugust 6, 2026 (after market close)
Goose crushing circuit repairs completeQ3 2026
Goose Phase 1 capacity upgrade (3,200 tpd)End of Q3 2026
Gramalote permitting decision~March 2027 (12 months from Mar 2026 submission)
Goose Phase 2 capacity upgrade ($20–30M, 4,000 tpd)H1 2027
NCIB authorization ceiling (132.7M shares)Through April 2, 2027
Back River exploration results (2026 program)Q4 2026 / early 2027
Source: 6 7
The Fekola Regional permit is the highest-priority near-term catalyst. It resolves within days (end of June 2026). The Q2 earnings on August 6 will be the first full accounting of the Goose fire impact, Fekola performance without the regional contribution (if the permit is delayed), and the pace of NCIB execution post-Fingold. The late-July Q2 production preview matters for setting expectations before the August earnings print.

Pass/fail summary

BTG passes all four hard filters: market cap $5.68B ✅, TTM revenue growth +86.94% ✅, PEG 0.08 (Finviz, single-source; cross-checks 0.13–0.16, all under 1.0) ✅, OCF +$1.26B TTM ✅.
The core thesis is straightforward: an established, dividend-paying, cash-generating gold miner trading at 2.53–2.89× EV/EBITDA and 10–12× trailing earnings — roughly half the multiple of comparable producers — because roughly half its production comes from Mali. The Mali discount is real. The April 2026 security events were serious. The geographic separation between the conflict zones and Fekola is a fact, but it is not contractually guaranteed. Investors are being compensated with a 52–62% analyst upside target, a 1.86% dividend yield, an active $634M+ NCIB authorization, $362M in free cash flow from a single quarter, and a high-grade Canadian mine ramping in the world's most mining-friendly jurisdiction. The question is whether that compensation is enough — and at what Mali risk scenario it stops being enough. For a retail investor's watch list, the two numbers to watch are: the Fekola Regional exploitation permit (binary, this week) and Q2 Goose production (late July), which together will define whether full-year guidance holds.
For informational purposes only; not investment advice. All data from publicly available sources as of June 18–22, 2026. Pass #31 of the daily US small-cap screen (market cap < $10B, TTM revenue growth > 30%, PEG < 1, positive operating cash flow). Previously featured: AUGO, ASM, HNI, EE, CMBT, KNSA, GRND, BWAY, BKV, AG, VIST, AUB, CARE, BLLN, ATAT, ABX, PLMR, GPOR, HALO, DLO, TREE, MXL, PAY, KVYO, DAVE, ASIC, FIGR, ZETA, FLYW, ANIP.

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