US Retaliates for Downed Apache; Oil Bounces Off $88 While Gold Slides Past $4,200 Pre-CPI
The US completed strikes on Iran overnight after an Apache helicopter was downed near the Strait of Hormuz, lifting WTI back above $89 before gains softened. Gold fell through $4,219 in Asian trade — below the 200-DMA — as 70%+ Fed rate-hike odds outweigh safe-haven demand. May CPI (est. +4.2% YoY, highest in 37 months) releases at 8:30 AM ET. Iron ore on a 5-session losing streak at 760 CNY/t; copper and corn roughly flat.
Commodities Daily Move — Wednesday, June 10, 2026 | Issue #15
The US military completed retaliatory strikes against Iran overnight after an Army Apache helicopter was shot down near the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. The escalation briefly sent WTI back above $89, though gains softened as markets waited for the day's defining event: the May CPI print at 8:30 AM ET. Gold fell through $4,220 in Asian trade — breaching its 200-day moving average — as the rate-hike thesis continues to dominate safe-haven demand.
Price snapshot
| Commodity | Price | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (spot) | ~$4,219 | −0.9% (early Asia) | Settled $4,260 Jun 9; 200-DMA broken |
| Comex Gold (Jun settle) | $4,260.00 | −1.75% | Apache/rate-hike selloff |
| WTI (Jul futures) | ~$88.03–$89.10 | Choppy† | Prior close $88.20 (−3.4%) |
| Brent (Aug futures) | ~$91.27–$92.29 | Choppy† | Prior close $91.45 (−3.0%) |
| Copper (COMEX) | ~$6.32/lb | −0.01% | Range $6.2673–$6.3598 |
| Iron ore (DCE Sep) | 760 CNY/t | −0.2% | 5th consecutive decline, 2-month low |
| Corn (CBOT Jul) | 419.50¢ | Flat | Per USDA Minneapolis morning report |
†WTI/Brent levels were choppy throughout early Wednesday trading; range reflects the overnight US strike reaction and post-completion partial pullback.
Oil: Apache down, US strikes completed — but the bounce is fading
Iran's IRGC shot down a US Army Apache helicopter patrolling near the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night. By Tuesday evening, President Trump confirmed the incident on Truth Social: "The two pilots involved in the attack are safe and uninjured. Nevertheless, the United States must, of necessity, respond." The US military completed self-defense strikes against Iranian military targets near the strait on Tuesday night, and Iran's IRGC launched drone strikes against the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and a US airbase in Jordan. 1
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WTI and Brent were choppy through Wednesday's early session. After Tuesday's sell-off — WTI closed at $88.20 (−3.4%), Brent at $91.45 (−3.0%) — prices rebounded toward $89/bbl (WTI) and $92.29 (Brent) before slipping back as CENTCOM confirmed operations were "completed." 2
Rystad Energy put the cumulative supply damage in context: the shutdown of 11.8 million barrels per day across six Gulf producers is the most severe oil supply disruption in modern history, with cumulative losses reaching 1 billion barrels. Each additional month of conflict could erase another 350 million barrels of output. 2
The API weekly inventory draw added supply support: US crude stockpiles fell 9.12 million barrels in the week ended June 5 — the eighth consecutive weekly decline — while gasoline inventories dropped 1.19 million barrels. 3
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Gold: rate-hike math keeps beating war risk
Gold settled Comex at $4,260 on Tuesday (−1.75%), then fell further to around $4,219 in Asian trade Wednesday — the lowest since early May and below the 200-day moving average. 4 5
Standard Chartered's Suki Cooper said gold has "breached a 200-day moving average" and price action will "become more vulnerable in the near term, driven by macro headwinds." 4
The dynamic is uncomfortable: the Iran war and Hormuz closure are inflationary, and that inflation feeds the Fed rate-hike narrative — which drives up the dollar and the opportunity cost of holding gold. With market-implied odds of a December rate hike above 70% (CME FedWatch), safe-haven buying cannot offset the macro headwind. Gold is now down roughly 25% from its May peak of ~$5,666.
What happens at 8:30 AM ET today determines the next move. The May CPI consensus is +4.2% YoY — the highest since April 2023 — with core at +2.9%. 6 7 A print at or above 4.3% would likely push gold below $4,200; a softer result in the 4.0%–4.1% range could spark a relief rally toward $4,300.
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Copper: pre-tariff tension building quietly
COMEX copper held around $6.32/lb on Wednesday, within Tuesday's LME range where the benchmark three-month price rose 0.8% to $13,728/t. 8 The metal has traded steadier than gold or oil partly because the June 30 US copper tariff deadline continues to pull physical inventory out of LME warehouses — stocks have fallen roughly 6% over the past month.
Iron ore and corn
Iron ore fell for a fifth straight session on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, with the September contract closing at 760 CNY/t (−0.2%) — near a two-month low. 9 China's steel margins remain compressed, limiting restocking demand.
Corn (CBOT Jul) held at 419.50¢ per bushel, roughly flat per the USDA Minneapolis morning grain report, stabilizing after 12 losses in 13 sessions through last week. 10
What moves the market today
- 8:30 AM ET — US May CPI: +4.2% YoY headline consensus, +0.5% month-on-month; core at +2.9%. A print above 4.3% tightens the hike narrative and likely breaks gold below $4,200. A sub-4.1% print could briefly pull oil toward $95 on risk-on positioning. 6
- Jun 11 — ECB meeting: Expected to raise rates 25bp to 2.25%. A hawkish tone would reinforce the global tightening narrative.
- Jun 16–17 — Warsh FOMC: The first Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh; now a live potential hike at ~70% market odds.
- Jun 30 — US copper tariff deadline: LME warehouse stocks draining; any policy shift could move copper sharply.
Key equities to watch
| Ticker | Company | Commodity exposure |
|---|---|---|
| CVX | Chevron | WTI/Brent — Gulf supply disruption |
| XOM | ExxonMobil | Crude + LNG through Hormuz |
| COP | ConocoPhillips | WTI-heavy upstream |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | Gold spot proxy |
| NEM | Newmont | Gold mining |
| FCX | Freeport-McMoRan | Copper — COMEX tariff play |
| SCCO | Southern Copper | Copper — tariff/LME spread |
| BHP | BHP Group | Iron ore + copper |
| RIO | Rio Tinto | Iron ore — DCE weakness |
| ADM | Archer-Daniels-Midland | Corn/grains |
Fuentes de referencia
- 1US CENTCOM — US Completes Strikes in Response to Iran's Attack on Apache
- 2CNBC — Oil price: US completes Iran strikes after Apache helicopter attack
- 3Angel One — Crude Oil Prices Rise Nearly 1% After Fresh US Strikes on Iran
- 4WSJ — Precious Metals Lower as Trump Vows Military Response
- 5ASX 200 Live — Gold dipped further 0.9% to US$4,219 in early Wednesday trade
- 6Reuters — Higher gasoline prices likely pushed up US consumer inflation in May
- 7Investopedia — What to expect from Wednesday's inflation report
- 8Energy News OE Digital — LME stock tightens as copper prices rise, dollar falls
- 9Vietnam.vn — Iron ore prices fell for the fifth consecutive session to 760 CNY/tonne
- 10USDA AMS Minneapolis Daily Grain Report
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