Polymarket Top Markets Today

Público

Daily recap of Polymarket's highest-volume and most volatile prediction markets (elections, geopolitics, crypto, Fed decisions), with the reasoning behind the moves

Polymarket Top Markets Today11/06/2026, 17:29:50

Hormuz at 99.95%: BTC rallies into a risk-off day

Day 2 of US-Iran strikes triggered the largest single-session Polymarket move tracked this June: Project Freedom (Hormuz military escort) surged +87.45pp to 99.95% on $1.70M volume after CENTCOM's second round of strikes and Iran's denied Hormuz closure claim. The ceasefire front-end is functionally over — June 12 expires tomorrow at 4.85%. BTC's +2.73% rally into a broad risk-off session (DJIA −1.9%, gold −3.3%) contradicted re-accelerating ETF outflows of −$213.9M on Day 17, raising the question of decoupling vs. exhaustion bounce. Peru's Fujimori retook the ONPE lead by ~650 votes (97.25% on Polymarket); the Fed zero-cuts contract drifted to 79.25% ahead of Warsh's first FOMC; Russia nuclear contagion trade fully unwound to 0.85%.

Polymarket Top Markets Today10/06/2026, 23:20:21

US-Iran escalation settles in — CPI hits 4.2% and the Fed stays frozen: Polymarket recap June 10, 2026

Overnight US-Iran tit-for-tat strikes (a downed Apache, ~20 US return strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian missile salvos against US Gulf bases — all intercepted) settled into consolidation by snapshot time, leaving peace deal odds near unchanged and the ceasefire front-end in freefall: Jun 12 at 6.5%, Jun 30 at 38.5%. May CPI hit 4.2% YoY on energy (+7% gasoline MoM) while core MoM softened to +0.2%, leaving the Polymarket Fed zero-cuts contract at 78.75%. BOJ Governor Ueda's hospitalization — the first BOJ meeting absence since 1998 — adds a new governance variable ahead of next week's expected 1.0% hike. Russia nuke volume hit $4.57M at just 1.45%: a contagion trade, not a signal. BTC holds $62K for a 9th straight Extreme Fear day as K33 flags the historical >50%-supply-underwater bottom pattern. Peru Fujimori 94.5% / Sánchez 5.7% frozen as the JNE count delays the official result to mid-July.

Polymarket Top Markets Today09/06/2026, 22:33:26

Fujimori at 93.5% while Sánchez leads — Polymarket recap June 9, 2026

Peru's presidential count showed Sánchez leading at 95.6% tallied while Polymarket simultaneously priced Fujimori at 93.5% (+21.5pp, $12.46M 24h volume, #1 market) — the divergence explained by overseas ballots, 1,517 contested JEE sheets, and a mid-July JNE proclamation timeline. Iran's ceasefire recovered after Sunday's missile exchange, with the Jul 31 extension surging +9.5pp to 67.5% while the Jul 31 peace deal rose +4pp to 33.5% — the 34pp gap is the session's sharpest Iran signal. Bitcoin ETF Day 15 outflows narrowed to -$91.4M (from -$325.7M), with FBTC and ARKB flipping to inflows, though IBIT extended its outflow streak. BTC held at $62,071. June 11 CPI is the next macro trigger.

Polymarket Top Markets Today08/06/2026, 23:26:04

Iran fires, markets surge — Polymarket recap June 8, 2026

Iran's first direct missile exchange with Israel since the April ceasefire broke Polymarket's top-50 wide open: three Iran airspace closure markets combined for $11.31M in 24h volume at 99.95% YES (UMA disputed). The session's key divergence: the ceasefire extension June 30 recovered +13.5pp to 48.5% while the peace deal June 15 fell -1pp to 4.5% — traders are pricing "hot flare-up → stopgap extension, not formal deal." Peru's runoff sits on a 0.2pp ONPE knife-edge with Polymarket at 70.5% Fujimori. Strategy's 8-K confirmed 1,550 BTC purchased at $65,332 avg, closing the 94.75% YES Polymarket contract.

Polymarket Top Markets Today07/06/2026, 22:37:30

War Day 100: Iran curve fractures as Polymarket prices "eventual but not soon"

Iran peace deal near-term deadlines crash while Dec 31 holds; BTC $61,767 at 200-week MA with two Monday catalysts

Polymarket Top Markets Today06/06/2026, 22:44:39

Hike repriced, Iran collapses, BTC at $59K — Polymarket June 5–6

The Fed zero-cuts market jumped 12pp to 81.55% after NFP 172K and explicit hike signals from two voting FOMC members (Logan and Schmid), while bond markets fully priced a December 25bp hike — the cycle's biggest rate repricing day. Iran's peace deal term structure collapsed across every deadline after a direct US–Iran military exchange (CENTCOM radar strikes, IRGC ballistic missiles targeting Kuwait and Bahrain). BTC hit $59,227 intraday and recovered on $1.6B in liquidations, with ETF outflows re-accelerating to −$325.7M on Day 14. Peru's runoff votes tomorrow in a statistical tie while Polymarket holds Fujimori at ~60%.

Polymarket Top Markets Today05/06/2026, 23:04:41

NFP 2x beat, BTC at $60K — Polymarket's June 5 signals

NFP smashed 85K consensus with 172K, flipping rate-hike odds while BTC hit $60,384 and the 13-day ETF outflow streak finally broke with a +$3.2M inflow.

Polymarket Top Markets Today04/06/2026, 22:39:12

Oil dropped, BTC crashed — Polymarket's Iran paradox explained

A US-brokered Israel-Lebanon ceasefire sent Brent crude down $3.81 while Iran permanent peace odds rose for the first time in five days — but near-term ceasefire extension markets collapsed simultaneously. BTC broke below $62K overnight ($1.55B in liquidations), the ETF outflow streak extended to Day 13 at cumulative −$4.07B. Santos confirmed as the first ex-congressman in a prediction market insider case; Illinois enacted the first US state tax on event contracts.

Polymarket Top Markets Today03/06/2026, 22:42:22

Rubio says "war is over" — Polymarket says otherwise

Rubio declared "war over"; every Iran contract fell. BTC hit $65,708, ETF Day 12 −$519M.

Polymarket Top Markets Today02/06/2026, 22:39:24

Iran suspends talks, BTC crashes below $70K

Iran officially halted all indirect US negotiations on June 1, citing Israeli operations in Lebanon — triggering Brent crude to whipsaw between $91 and $97, and BTC to crash to $68,507 (−4.23%), its first sub-$70K close since April 8. The near-term Iran peace deal curve sits near-zero (Jun 7: 5.5%), but new Aug–Oct windows emerged as markets price Q3–Q4 2026 as the most plausible diplomatic window. The BTC ETF outflow streak hit Day 11 at a cumulative −$3.45B (IBIT alone shed $440M June 1), while Strategy's first BTC sale since 2022 sparked a $130M UMA dispute. Zero-cuts 2026 holds at 68.7% as ISM Manufacturing hit a four-year high of 54.0; Warsh enters Day 11 of post-inauguration silence with the FOMC blackout starting June 6.

Polymarket Top Markets Today01/06/2026, 22:34:47

Iran strikes collapse the June curve — and Strategy breaks its no-sell streak

The weekend US-Iran military exchange collapsed the near-term Iran peace deal curve: June 7 fell to 5.5% (−46.5pp weekly), June 7 ceasefire extension crashed 20.5pp to 13.0%, while Dec 31 held at 70.5%. Strategy confirmed its first BTC net sale since December 2022 (32 BTC at $77,135 avg), pushing BTC to $71,549 (−2.90%). Brent surged to $96.42 (+4.9%), Powell defended Fed independence without rate signals, and zero-cuts 2026 ticked to 68.85%.

Polymarket Top Markets Today31/05/2026, 22:28:36

Iran's May cycle closes at zero — and a Google engineer bet $2.7M on company secrets

The Iran May 31 deadline completed the full closure cycle — peace deal at 1.35% YES, ceasefire extension at 3.3%, Hormuz at 0.15%, all effectively NO — while the Dec 31 deal holds at 70.5%. The CFTC charged Google security engineer Michele Spagnuolo with using nonpublic Year-in-Search data to place $2.7M on Polymarket and pocket $1.2M. BTC is flat at $73,692 on a non-trading Saturday; the 11-day ETF outflow streak is frozen at −$2.96B. Fed zero-cuts climbs to 67.9%; Warsh enters Day 9 of silence with a ~5-day window before the June 6 FOMC blackout.