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Global Macro Weekly

Global Macro Weekly

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K
Ke Smith

Each week: what the major central banks decided, how jobs and inflation data came in vs. expectations, and how FX and asset prices moved in response — all tied together in one analytical read.

Global Macro Weekly
Global Macro Weekly
2026-07-02

Jobs Finally Cracked: Week of June 26-July 2, 2026

This week's read connects the June payroll miss, lower euro-zone inflation, the Fed's reduced July-hike odds, a sharp dollar/yen move, and the oil-gold cross-asset reaction into one macro narrative.

Global Macro Weekly
Global Macro Weekly
2026-06-25

Oil Fell, PCE Didn't: Week of June 19–25, 2026

This week's read explains why falling oil and softer Treasury yields did not erase the hawkish repricing: May PCE moved above 4%, Q1 GDP was revised higher with weak consumer detail, the dollar stayed firm, and China added a new short-term liquidity tool.

Global Macro Weekly
Global Macro Weekly
2026-06-18

The Hawkish Hold: Week of June 15-18, 2026

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh kept rates unchanged but pushed the market toward a hike path, while the BOJ actually raised rates and the BoE held with two dissents. This week's read connects the central-bank decisions, U.S. and UK data surprises, dollar/yield repricing, oil relief, and the next data calendar.

Global Macro Weekly
Global Macro Weekly
2026-06-11

War, Hike, and the One Number That Mattered: Week of June 9–13, 2026

The ECB hiked rates for the first time since 2023, U.S. CPI came in at a three-year high of 4.2% with a softer-than-expected core, and the Bank of Japan's governor landed in hospital — yet the BoJ's 90%-priced hike to 1.00% is still on for next week. Iran war escalation drove the S&P 500 through a 580-point round trip before Trump called off Thursday night's strikes, sending oil down 4%, Treasury yields rallying, and equities to their best session in weeks. This issue covers the ECB decision, May CPI/PPI breakdown, FX and rates, cross-asset phase analysis, and the critical week-ahead calendar anchored by the BoJ and Warsh's first FOMC press conference.

Global Macro Weekly
Global Macro Weekly
2026-06-08

The Jobs Shock: Week of June 2–6, 2026

May payrolls came in at 172,000 — more than double consensus — triggering Wall Street's worst day of the year, a 15-month high in the 2-year Treasury yield, and USD/JPY back above 160. With EZ CPI at 3.2% and BOJ Governor Ueda signaling a 'good chance' of a June hike, the coming week's ECB decision (June 11), US CPI (June 11), and BOJ MPM (June 15) will determine whether the synchronized global tightening cycle is truly restarting.

Global Macro Weekly
Global Macro Weekly
2026-06-01

A Ceasefire Dividend and a Data Reality Check: Week of May 26–30, 2026

Iran ceasefire signals pushed oil from $112 to $92 and Treasury yields lower for four straight sessions — but PCE hit a three-year high at 3.8%, GDP was revised down to 1.6%, the RBNZ held by a casting vote with explicit hike guidance, and the SARB became the first major EM bank to hike since the war began. The week closes with a packed June calendar led by the US May jobs report on June 6 and the ECB's June 11 decision.

Global Macro Weekly
Global Macro Weekly
2026-05-25

PCE and the Warsh Test: Week of May 26–30, 2026

FOMC minutes confirmed a hawkish shift, Governor Waller removed his easing bias in Frankfurt, and April PCE arrives Thursday as Warsh's first major inflation test. ECB at 86% probability of a June hike, BoJ near 80%; the RBA pauses after a jobs miss. Brent eases toward $99 on Iran deal optimism as markets brace for a data-heavy, holiday-shortened week.

Global Macro Weekly
Global Macro Weekly
2026-05-23

Oil, Yields, and a New Fed Chair: Week of May 19–23, 2026

Brent crude swung from $112 to $102 and back to $105, pulling Treasuries, FX, and equities with it. The FOMC minutes confirmed a hawkish shift, Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair, UK and European PMIs slipped into contraction, and Japan's soft April CPI clouded BoJ hike timing — all while markets start pricing a Fed rate increase by year-end.

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