China Macro Weekly

April's economic data landed with a thud — retail sales hit their lowest in over three years, fixed-asset investment swung back into contraction, and industrial output slowed sharply. The PBOC kept rates frozen for a 12th straight month. In property, first-tier cities showed green shoots in resale prices even as investment slumped deeper. On trade: the US-China truce clock is ticking toward November, Bessent says Washington is "not in a rush" to renew, and rare earths are quietly becoming a pressure point. We unpack what all of it means for the trajectory of China's economy in 2026.

China's economy hit turbulence in April with retail sales and industrial output missing forecasts sharply. Meanwhile the PBOC held rates steady but stimulus talk is back; property stress is deepening around Vanke's $11.6 billion rescue; the US-China trade truce is locked in through October 2026; and Beijing just unveiled the 15th Five-Year Plan with embodied AI and brain-computer interfaces as priority industries.